Game Analysis

Michigan (-7)  25   MICHIGAN STATE  15

Michigan has not been as good on the road (10-6 straight-up and 6-10 ATS) as they’ve been at home under coach Jim Harbaugh, but most of those bad games were against equal or better teams (0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS as a road dog or pick). Michigan is 10-1 straight-up and a decent 5-5 ATS as a road favorite under Harbaugh and they should beat Michigan State by more than a touchdown.

Michigan State is coming off an upset win at Penn State but the Spartans were outplayed 4.7 yards per play to 6.3 yppl in that game and they’ve only outgained their opponents by 0.3 yppl this season. Michigan State is just average offensively (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and the Spartans are a good 0.7 yppl better than average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team). However, MSU’s mediocre attack doesn’t figure to have many scoring opportunities against a Michigan defense that sits atop my ratings at 2.0 yppl better than average (3.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average team). Michigan has only allowed an average of 15.4 points per game and that’s about what they should allow to the Spartans in this game.

The Michigan offensive will determine whether they cover the number and the Wolverines actually have an advantage over MSU’s quality top unit. Michigan has averaged 38 points on 6.5 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team), so they’re 0.2 yppl better than the Michigan State defense.

My math model favors Michigan by 11.7 points but my concern is that the Wolverines have scored only 37 points in two road games this season. I can live with the 17 points scored against a very good Notre Dame defense but scoring just 20 points against a mediocre Northwestern defense is cause for concern. I’m not going to let that one game distract me from the big picture – which is Michigan is much better than Michigan State.