Game Analysis
Michigan (-24.5) 38 MICHIGAN STATE 10
My math model favors Michigan by 26 points, so the line move from the opening number of 20 points was certainly justified. I’m going to take Michigan by a full 4 touchdowns, as the the Wolverines apply to a 78-21-1 ATS huge favorite situation (10-2 when applying to road favorites of more than 21 points), and favorites of 21 points or more with revenge against a conference opponent for a loss the previous season have been pretty good over the years (86-61-3 ATS).
Rush
-
Run Plays
43.9
29.0
-
Run Yards
260.7
100.6
-
YPRP
6.2
4.3
Pass
-
Pass Comp
18.4
9.6
-
Pass Att
28.9
23.4
-
Comp %
63.9%
40.8%
-
Pass Yards
225.9
111.0
-
Sacks
1.6
3.4
-
Sack Yards
11.9
24.0
-
Sack %
5.2%
12.8%
-
Pass Plays
30.4
26.9
-
Net Pass Yards
214.0
87.0
-
YPPP
7.0
3.2
Total
-
Total Plays
74.3
55.9
-
Total Yards
486.6
211.6
-
YPPL
6.5
3.8
TO
-
Int
0.3
1.0
-
Int %
1.0%
4.3%
-
Fumbles
0.4
0.7
-
Turnovers
0.7
1.7
Rush
-
Run Plays
33.6
37.4
-
Run Yards
160.4
167.9
-
YPRP
5.1
4.7
Pass
-
Pass Comp
17.7
19.3
-
Pass Att
29.7
30.3
-
Comp %
59.6%
63.7%
-
Pass Yards
235.3
225.4
-
Sacks
2.3
1.0
-
Sack Yards
12.3
6.3
-
Sack %
7.2%
3.2%
-
Pass Plays
32.0
31.3
-
Net Pass Yards
223.0
219.1
-
YPPP
7.0
7.0
Total
-
Total Plays
65.6
68.7
-
Total Yards
395.7
393.3
-
YPPL
6.0
5.7
TO
-
Int
1.1
0.7
-
Int %
3.8%
2.3%
-
Fumbles
0.7
0.6
-
Turnovers
1.9
1.3
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/03/16 Hawaii |
63-3 |
-40.0
W
|
39/32 |
306/126 |
7.8/3.9 |
0/0 |
17/12 |
20/23 |
206/110 |
1/2 |
0/4 |
10.3/4.1 |
512/236 |
8.7/4.0 |
| 09/10/16 UCF |
51-14 |
-35.5
W
|
38/43 |
142/293 |
3.7/6.8 |
0/2 |
27/6 |
41/22 |
316/38 |
0/0 |
2/3 |
7.3/1.5 |
458/331 |
5.7/4.9 |
| 09/17/16 Colorado |
45-28 |
-19.0
L
|
38/28 |
190/93 |
5.0/3.3 |
1/0 |
16/18 |
30/34 |
207/233 |
0/0 |
3/4 |
6.3/6.1 |
397/326 |
5.6/4.9 |
| 09/24/16 Penn St. |
49-10 |
-19.0
W
|
46/22 |
330/97 |
7.2/4.4 |
0/1 |
21/16 |
35/27 |
189/94 |
0/1 |
0/6 |
5.4/2.8 |
519/191 |
6.4/3.5 |
| 10/01/16 Wisconsin |
14-7 |
-10.0
L
|
40/25 |
162/97 |
4.1/3.9 |
0/0 |
20/9 |
32/25 |
187/75 |
1/3 |
4/2 |
5.2/2.8 |
349/172 |
4.6/3.3 |
| 10/08/16 @ Rutgers |
78-0 |
-29.5
W
|
53/32 |
485/69 |
9.2/2.2 |
1/1 |
8/2 |
16/18 |
119/-23 |
0/0 |
0/4 |
7.4/-1.0 |
604/46 |
8.8/0.9 |
| 10/22/16 Illinois |
41-8 |
-37.0
L
|
53/21 |
293/97 |
5.5/4.6 |
1/1 |
20/4 |
28/15 |
274/82 |
0/1 |
2/1 |
9.1/5.1 |
567/179 |
6.8/4.8 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/02/16 Furman |
28-13 |
0.0
W
|
34/31 |
182/104 |
5.4/3.4 |
1/0 |
13/16 |
18/31 |
187/134 |
1/1 |
2/1 |
9.4/4.2 |
369/238 |
6.8/3.8 |
| 09/17/16 @ Notre Dame |
36-28 |
+7.0
W
|
51/23 |
262/68 |
5.1/3.0 |
0/2 |
19/20 |
26/37 |
241/333 |
1/1 |
0/2 |
9.3/8.5 |
503/401 |
6.5/6.5 |
| 09/24/16 Wisconsin |
6-30 |
-5.0
L
|
22/39 |
105/132 |
4.8/3.4 |
1/1 |
20/16 |
42/26 |
230/184 |
3/1 |
4/2 |
5.0/6.6 |
335/316 |
4.9/4.7 |
| 10/01/16 @ Indiana |
21-24 |
-7.0
L
|
38/38 |
191/153 |
5.0/4.0 |
1/0 |
21/17 |
35/28 |
254/281 |
0/1 |
2/0 |
6.9/10.0 |
445/434 |
5.9/6.6 |
| 10/08/16 BYU |
14-31 |
-6.0
L
|
28/47 |
109/264 |
3.9/5.6 |
0/0 |
13/18 |
21/27 |
106/138 |
1/0 |
3/0 |
4.4/5.1 |
215/402 |
4.1/5.4 |
| 10/15/16 Northwestern |
40-54 |
-6.0
L
|
19/47 |
85/221 |
4.5/4.7 |
1/0 |
27/27 |
42/35 |
390/273 |
1/1 |
4/1 |
8.5/7.6 |
475/494 |
7.3/6.0 |
| 10/22/16 @ Maryland |
17-28 |
-3.0
L
|
43/37 |
275/277 |
6.4/7.5 |
1/1 |
11/21 |
24/28 |
153/191 |
1/0 |
1/1 |
6.1/6.6 |
428/468 |
6.3/7.1 |
Michigan St.