Game Analysis
Michigan (-22) 29 Iowa 7
The question here is if Iowa will score. The Hawkeyes were shutout by Penn State, the best defensive team they’ve faced but hey scored 20 points against Iowa State and 13 points against Nebraska, who are both also very good defensively. Michigan’s defense is better than the latter two but doesn’t rank as high as Penn State’s defense on a compensated yards per play basis so I’m going to bet that the Hawkeyes will score.
Iowa’s defense is only allowing 12.2 points per game and Michigan averaged 27 points against the other two elite defensive teams that they’ve faced (24 vs Penn State and 30 vs Ohio State).
The math model favors Michigan by 19.8 points but conference championship favorites of more than 21 points on a neutral field are 7-0 ATS with an average winning margin of 37 points.
Rush
-
Run Plays
36.6
27.5
-
Run Yards
183.0
99.7
-
YPRP
5.0
3.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
17.8
13.6
-
Pass Att
23.8
25.6
-
Comp %
74.7%
53.1%
-
Pass Yards
231.5
149.7
-
Sacks
1.2
2.4
-
Sack Yards
9.4
16.6
-
Sack %
4.7%
8.6%
-
Pass Plays
24.9
28.0
-
Net Pass Yards
222.1
133.1
-
YPPP
8.9
4.8
Total
-
Total Plays
61.5
55.5
-
Total Yards
405.1
232.8
-
YPPL
6.6
4.2
TO
-
Int
0.3
1.3
-
Int %
1.4%
5.2%
-
Fumbles
0.2
0.4
-
Turnovers
0.5
1.8
Rush
-
Run Plays
32.7
31.8
-
Run Yards
141.0
117.4
-
YPRP
4.3
3.7
Pass
-
Pass Comp
12.0
19.3
-
Pass Att
24.3
35.1
-
Comp %
49.5%
54.9%
-
Pass Yards
123.0
174.3
-
Sacks
2.0
1.8
-
Sack Yards
15.2
9.8
-
Sack %
7.6%
5.0%
-
Pass Plays
26.3
36.9
-
Net Pass Yards
107.8
164.5
-
YPPP
4.1
4.5
Total
-
Total Plays
58.9
68.8
-
Total Yards
248.8
281.9
-
YPPL
4.2
4.1
TO
-
Int
0.8
0.8
-
Int %
3.1%
2.4%
-
Fumbles
0.6
0.4
-
Turnovers
1.3
1.3
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/02/23 East Carolina |
30-3 |
-36.0
L
|
31/26 |
150/103 |
4.8/4.0 |
0/0 |
26/15 |
31/29 |
290/112 |
0/1 |
0/0 |
9.4/3.9 |
440/215 |
7.1/3.9 |
| 09/09/23 UNLV |
35-7 |
-37.5
L
|
33/26 |
184/77 |
5.6/3.0 |
0/0 |
24/13 |
28/26 |
313/117 |
0/0 |
0/5 |
11.2/3.8 |
497/194 |
8.1/3.4 |
| 09/16/23 Bowling Green |
31-6 |
-40.5
L
|
29/32 |
184/95 |
6.3/3.0 |
1/1 |
8/14 |
13/21 |
130/105 |
3/2 |
1/3 |
9.3/4.4 |
314/200 |
7.3/3.6 |
| 09/23/23 Rutgers |
31-7 |
-24.0
T
|
38/22 |
210/84 |
5.5/3.8 |
0/0 |
15/11 |
21/21 |
205/180 |
0/1 |
2/0 |
8.9/8.6 |
415/264 |
6.8/6.1 |
| 09/30/23 @ Nebraska |
45-7 |
-18.0
W
|
51/17 |
249/66 |
4.9/3.9 |
0/0 |
17/14 |
23/25 |
214/175 |
0/1 |
0/4 |
9.3/6.0 |
463/241 |
6.3/5.2 |
| 10/07/23 @ Minnesota |
52-10 |
-18.5
W
|
32/37 |
186/132 |
5.8/3.6 |
0/0 |
16/5 |
23/15 |
252/37 |
0/2 |
0/2 |
11.0/2.2 |
438/169 |
8.0/3.1 |
| 10/14/23 Indiana |
52-7 |
-33.0
W
|
38/28 |
186/100 |
4.9/3.6 |
0/2 |
19/14 |
22/29 |
245/111 |
0/2 |
4/4 |
9.4/3.4 |
431/211 |
6.7/3.5 |
| 10/21/23 @ Michigan St. |
49-0 |
-24.5
W
|
33/26 |
140/71 |
4.2/2.7 |
0/0 |
28/16 |
35/29 |
354/111 |
0/2 |
1/3 |
9.8/3.5 |
494/182 |
7.2/3.1 |
| 11/04/23 Purdue |
41-13 |
-32.5
L
|
30/28 |
146/117 |
4.9/4.2 |
1/0 |
24/11 |
37/28 |
301/111 |
0/1 |
3/1 |
7.5/3.8 |
447/228 |
6.4/4.0 |
| 11/11/23 @ Penn St. |
24-15 |
-4.5
W
|
43/34 |
241/172 |
5.6/5.1 |
0/1 |
7/11 |
8/23 |
50/65 |
0/0 |
1/1 |
5.6/2.7 |
291/237 |
5.6/4.1 |
| 11/18/23 @ Maryland |
31-24 |
-19.0
L
|
43/27 |
159/69 |
3.7/2.6 |
0/1 |
12/21 |
23/31 |
134/205 |
1/2 |
1/5 |
5.6/5.7 |
293/274 |
4.4/4.3 |
| 11/25/23 Ohio St. |
30-24 |
-3.5
W
|
38/27 |
161/110 |
4.2/4.1 |
0/0 |
17/18 |
21/30 |
177/268 |
0/2 |
1/1 |
8.0/8.6 |
338/378 |
5.6/6.5 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/02/23 Utah St. |
24-14 |
-24.0
L
|
34/23 |
100/126 |
2.9/5.5 |
0/0 |
19/32 |
33/48 |
195/203 |
0/1 |
1/1 |
5.7/4.1 |
295/329 |
4.3/4.6 |
| 09/09/23 @ Iowa St. |
20-13 |
-4.0
W
|
26/31 |
117/87 |
4.5/2.8 |
0/0 |
12/23 |
22/44 |
120/203 |
1/1 |
1/0 |
5.2/4.6 |
237/290 |
4.8/3.9 |
| 09/16/23 Western Mich |
41-10 |
-28.5
W
|
39/34 |
283/138 |
7.3/4.1 |
0/1 |
11/7 |
22/18 |
78/107 |
2/0 |
4/2 |
3.0/5.4 |
361/245 |
5.6/4.5 |
| 09/23/23 @ Penn St. |
0-31 |
+14.0
L
|
14/57 |
45/187 |
3.2/3.3 |
4/0 |
6/26 |
16/40 |
34/181 |
0/0 |
3/0 |
1.8/4.5 |
79/368 |
2.4/3.8 |
| 09/30/23 Michigan St. |
26-16 |
-12.0
L
|
25/32 |
72/156 |
2.9/4.9 |
1/1 |
14/25 |
32/44 |
152/193 |
1/3 |
1/0 |
4.6/4.4 |
224/349 |
3.9/4.6 |
| 10/07/23 Purdue |
20-14 |
-2.5
W
|
32/34 |
212/143 |
6.6/4.2 |
0/0 |
6/25 |
21/40 |
100/204 |
1/2 |
1/6 |
4.5/4.4 |
312/347 |
5.8/4.3 |
| 10/14/23 @ Wisconsin |
15-6 |
+10.0
W
|
45/27 |
220/112 |
4.9/4.1 |
0/1 |
6/27 |
14/50 |
20/220 |
0/1 |
2/1 |
1.3/4.3 |
240/332 |
3.9/4.3 |
| 10/21/23 Minnesota |
10-12 |
-3.5
L
|
24/40 |
42/132 |
1.8/3.3 |
2/0 |
10/10 |
28/25 |
86/113 |
1/0 |
4/3 |
2.7/4.0 |
128/245 |
2.3/3.6 |
| 11/04/23 @ Northwestern |
10-7 |
-5.0
L
|
38/35 |
117/120 |
3.1/3.4 |
0/0 |
10/12 |
15/19 |
53/67 |
1/0 |
2/5 |
3.1/2.8 |
170/187 |
3.1/3.2 |
| 11/11/23 Rutgers |
22-0 |
-1.5
W
|
45/20 |
189/59 |
4.2/3.0 |
0/0 |
20/7 |
31/18 |
223/86 |
1/1 |
0/1 |
7.2/4.5 |
412/145 |
5.4/3.7 |
| 11/18/23 Illinois |
15-13 |
-3.0
L
|
31/21 |
130/72 |
4.2/3.4 |
0/0 |
19/22 |
29/47 |
141/210 |
0/0 |
4/1 |
4.3/4.4 |
271/282 |
4.2/4.1 |
| 11/24/23 @ Nebraska |
13-10 |
+2.5
W
|
39/28 |
165/77 |
4.2/2.8 |
0/2 |
11/15 |
28/28 |
92/187 |
1/1 |
1/2 |
3.2/6.2 |
257/264 |
3.8/4.6 |
Michigan
vs 
Iowa