Game Analysis

Lean – Michigan (+7.5)  27   Alabama  30

I wonder how Alabama will respond to play a postseason game that is not a part of the playoffs. A couple of future NFL defenders decided it wasn’t important enough of a game to play, as DB Trevon Diggs and LB Terrell Lewis have opted not to play. Michigan, on the other hand, is desperate for a marquee win against a top team, which has eluded Jim Harbaugh during his tenure. Harbaugh’s Wolverines are 0-9 straight up and 3-6 ATS as an underdog but the last time Alabama was in a postseason game that was not a playoff or national championship game was a 14 point loss as a 16.5-point favorite to Oklahoma in January of 2014.

Michigan’s offense was horrible in the first two weeks of the season but excellent left tackle Jon Runyan Jr. made his debut in week 4 (game 3) and the Wolverines have been good ever since, averaging 6.1 yards per play against teams that would allow just 5.1 yppl to an average offense. Alabama’s defense was also 1.0 yppl better than average (5.0 yppl allowed by the starters to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defense). However, I calculate that the absence of Diggs and Lewis is worth close to 0.2 yppl, so the Wolverines’ attack has a slight advantage. Michigan’s offense was relatively just as good against good defensive teams and I project 403 yards at 5.9 yppl for the Wolverines in this game.

Alabama’s offense has obviously been hurt by the absence of injured quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but Mac Jones has done a pretty good job when he’s played with the first team receivers this season. Jones has averaged 8.4 yards per pass play since week 8 (before that he played in only garbage time with backup receivers) while facing teams that would allow 5.5 yppp to an average quarterback. Jones’ compensated yppp rating is 1.5 yppp worse than Tua’s but is still very, very good and Jones is projected to average a healthy 7.8 yppp in this game against a good Michigan pass defense that is 1.5 yppp better than average. The Wolverines are very tough to run against (4.0 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yprp) and they should shut down a Bama ground game that is just 0.4 yprp better than average this season. Alabama is projected to run for only 4.1 yprp and for 401 total yards at 6.1 yppl in this game.

Overall the math favors Alabama by just 3.3 points, with 57.3total points, and a good portion of that advantage comes from their excellent special teams, which accounted for 4 touchdowns this season. I expect a good effort from Michigan in this game while not being quite sure about how much Alabama was motivated during preparation for this game. I like the Wolverines plus the points in this game.