Game Analysis

Western Michigan (-1.5) vs Miami-Ohio

I don’t see any value in this game, as my math favors Western Michigan by 1.3 points with a total of 43.6 points (adjusted for playing in a dome).

I was on Western Michigan multiple times this season during their good run through the MAC, as the team improved heading into conference play when Broc Lowry took over at quarterback. Lowry averaged just 6.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average QB). However, Lowry runs well (979 yards at 6.2 yards per rushing play) and he doesn’t put the ball in harm’s way very often (just 19 passes defended against him, with just 2 interceptions, on 245 pass plays).

Miami-Ohio has a defense that’s been 0.2 yards per play better than an average FBS defense but they’re 0.2 yards per rushing play worse than average and the Broncos have a run-heavy attack. I project 331 yards at 5.1 yppl for Western Michigan.

Miami-Ohio’s offense was led most of the season by veteran quarterback Dequan Finn, but Finn left the team with 3 regular season games remaining to start preparing for the NFL draft combine, which I think is ridiculous unless he’s going to convert to another position given how mediocre his passing skills are. Backup Henry Hesson was a disaster (just 41% completions) but Thomas Gotkowski took over early in the week 13 game against Buffalo has has performed at a decent level. Gotkowski completed just 53% of his 47 passes and he’s not likely to continue to average 16.4 yards per completion, but he’s much better than Hesson was and doesn’t look like much of a downgrade from Finn in the aerial game while showing ability to make plays with his legs (86 yards on 13 runs).

I rate Miami’s offense at 0.4 yppl worse than average heading into this game and they’ll be up against a good Western Michigan defense that’s allowed just 18.7 points per game and rates at 0.2 yppl better than average on a national scale. I project 298 yards at 5.4 yppl for the Redhawks in this game.

Miami-Ohio has better special teams (1.2 points per game advantage in field goals alone) but Lowry is less likely to throw interceptions and overall I’m right where the market it with Western Michigan by 1.5 points and 43.6 total points.