Game Analysis

Alabama-Birmingham (-10.5)  29   Miami-Ohio  18

Miami-Ohio managed to go 6-6 despite not having starting quarterback Brett Gabbert for 8 of 12 games because the Redhawks had a stingy defense that allowed just 22.5 points per game on 5.4 yards per play. Miami’s offense averaged just 19.3 points against FBS competition and backup quarterback Aveon Smith’s only positive attribute is his ability to run (624 yards on 82 runs). The Redhawks’ offense is terrible (1.0 yppl worse than average) and the defense has been significantly affected by attrition in the secondary.

With Miami’s top cornerback John Saunders (12 passes defended) deciding to transfer, the Redhawks are now without 3 opening week starters in the secondary, as safety Eli Blakey has injured after 5 starts (7 passes defended) while the other starting CB Yahsyn McKee (8 PDs in 8 games) has missed the last 3 games and is not on the depth chart for this game. Miami’s defense was significantly worse those last 3 games after McKee’s injury and losing Saunders makes it worse. My algorithm projects that Miami’s defense will be 0.4 yards per play worse than their season rating of 0.4 yppl worse than average, which is worth 2.5 points based on UAB’s 63 projected plays and run-pass ratio. That is basically the difference between my projection and the market line on this game.

UAB is expected to play hard for their well-liked interim coach and the Blazers’ offense, which is 0.7 yppl better than average with quarterback Dylan Hopkins behind center. However, it was revealed on Thursday that star running back DeWayne McBride would not play in this game, which is a significant development. McBride ran for 1713 yards at a very impressive 7.4 ypr while his backups combined for 5.7 ypr, which works out to a difference of 2.7 points. UAB is now projected to gain 428 yards at 6.8 yppl in this game while the Blazers’ defense (0.1 yppl better than average) should limit Miami’s attack, although their leaky run defense could be an issue if Smith runs more than he normally does. I project 5.5 yards per rushing play for the Redhawks but just 274 yards at 4.7 yppl overall.