Game Analysis

TOLEDO (-7.5)  25   Miami-Ohio  19 

Miami-Ohio has turned to their defense to win games with start quarterback Brett Gabbert out the last month, but in 4 games with running QB Aveon Smith at the controls the Redhawks’ offense hasn’t been much worse – they just run fewer plays, which leads to less scoring. Miami has averaged 22.3 points in the 4 games with Smith at quarterback and the math projects 20 points in this game against a mediocre Toledo defense that’s 0.4 yppl better than the average rating of the defensive units that Miami has faced in their last 4 games with Smith at QB.

Toledo’s offense rates at 0.4 yppl better than average and they’ve been held in check by the average or better defensive teams that they’ve faced – managing just 5.3 yppl and 20.8 points per game against Illinois, San Jose State, Ball State and Miami-Ohio. This Miami defense is the best defense that Toledo has faced and the Rockets averaged only 4.7 yppl and scored just 21 points in that week 8 meeting. The math projects just 351 yards at 5.8 yppl for Toledo in this game and that may not be enough for them to win by more than a touchdown given Miami-Ohio’s likely advantage in field position due to their very good special teams (their punter has a 43.9 yard net average, which is among the best in the nation).