Game Analysis

*Wisconsin (+3.5 at -115)  24   Miami-Florida  23

Rotation #238 – 5:15 pm Pacific

There were 4 reasons for my play on Wisconsin when I released it. One was the fact that the Badgers ran the ball relatively better against better run defenses, which Miami has. The second reason was Miami’s best run defender and best all-around defensive player, DT Gerald Willis III, has decided to sit out this game to prepare for the NFL draft, which will make it easier for Wisconsin to run the ball. The third reason is that Wisconsin’s defense is underrated with freshman CB Rachad Wildgoose in the lineup, as he led the team in passes defended (7) despite barely playing in the first 5 games and the pass defense was much, much better after he became a starter. The fourth reason was the most important – Miami quarterback N’Kosi Perry is absolutely terrible, averaging just 4.9 yards per pass play despite facing teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback. Perry was expected to start until he posted a sexually explicit Snapchat, which has led to his benching and veteran Malik Rosier now starting at quarterback for the Hurricanes. Rosier isn’t great, as he was just average on his 142 pass plays against FBS competition this season (5.6 yppp against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average QB), but that’s a significant upgrade from Perry’s -1.6 yppp rating. I still would favor Wisconsin to cover with Rosier at quarterback but I certainly wouldn’t have made the Badgers a Best Bet had Perry’s idiotic social media move had happened before I released my play.

I still would rather have Wisconsin though, as the Badgers rush attack, led by All-American Jonathan Taylor (1989 yards at 7.1 ypr), was relatively better against good run defenses. Wisconsin faced 5 good run defenses in the regular season (BYU, Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern, and Penn State) and the Badgers ran for an average of 6.1 yard per rushing play, which is 1.9 yprp more than what those teams would allow an average running team. Miami has a good run defense (4.5 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yprp against an average team) but not having Gerald Willis significantly hurts that run defense. Willis, a two time All-American, led all defensive tackles in the nation in tackles for loss with 18, which is an incredible number for a defensive tackle that usually faces double-teams. With Miami’s run defense weakened, and with Wisconsin having proven that they can run successfully against good run defenses, the Badgers won’t have to throw as often into the dominating Hurricanes’ secondary. Miami yielded only 4.3 yards per pass play (to quarterbacks that would average 6.4 yppp against an average team) and Wisconsin freshman quarterback Jack Coan isn’t likely to have any success throwing against the Hurricanes in this game (only 3.9 yppp projected). However, I project 274 rushing yards at 6.5 yprp for Wisconsin and for the Badgers to total 357 yards at a decent 5.6 yards per play in this game.

Wisconsin wasn’t as good as expected this season because their defense was mediocre. Wisconsin allowed 6.0 yards per play over their first 5 games (to teams that would combine to average just 5.5 yppl against an average defense) and the pass defense was particularly bad (7.0 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.1 yppp against an average defense). A change was made when freshman CB Rachad Wildgoose was inserted into the starting lineup in week 7. Wildgoose barely played in the first 5 games but he led the team with 7 passes defended in just 7 starts and the pass defense in those final 7 regular season games improved significantly, allowing just 5.4 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average defensive team. Overall, the defensive was 0.6 yards per play better than average after that change in the secondary was made and that improvement in the defense is not in the line because it looks like the Badgers got worse defensively based on their points allowed in those final couple of games. Wisky gave up 81 points in their final two games against Purdue and Minnesota, but they only allowed 5.6 yppl, which was actually good considering Purdue and Minnesota (with Morgan at quarterback) would average 6.4 yppl against an average team. Wisconsin has a slight advantage over a Miami offense that is 0.3 yppl better than average with Rosier at quarterback and I project 365 yards at 5.7 yppl for the Hurricanes in this game.

Overall, the math picks this game even, so there is still value on Wisconsin even with Miami’s upgrade at quarterback, and I have a hard time believing that Miami’s players that are used to playing in warm weather are going to be fired up to play in 40-degree weather in New York City. Wisconsin will count as a 1-Star Best Bet but I’d just lean with the Badgers now and I have no opinion on the total.