Game Analysis

Miami-Florida (+3 -105)  23   TEXAS A&M  23

I know this game can’t end in a tie, but my math model favors Texas A&M by just 0.4 points with a total of 45.7 points, which includes the adjustment for 16 to 19 mph winds with gusts into the 30s.

The key for Miami will be to take advantage of a soft Texas A&M run defense that allowed 6.0 yards per rushing play against FBS opponents this season, including giving up 7.4 yprp in their last 5 FBS games. The aggies faced a lot of good running teams this season and rate at just 0.2 yprp worse than average and Miami is not a particularly good running team, as they’ve been 0.1 yprp worse than average (4.5 yprp against teams that would allow 4.6 yprp to an average team). Early down run success is important because A&M has the nation’s best 3rd-down defense and rank 4th in my compensated yards per pass play allowed.

Overall, Miami’s offense was 1.0 yards per play better than average this season, as Carson Beck averaged 8.1 yards per pass play against FBS opponents that would combine to allow just 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback. The Hurricanes rated the same against the 4 best defensive teams that they faced.

Texas A&M’s defense is 1.1 yppl better than average and they had mixed results against the 3 good offensive teams that they faced. The Aggies were better than their norm in limiting an elite Notre Dame offense to 6.3 yppl but they gave up 8.1 yppl to Arkansas and just allowed Texas to average 6.3 yppl against them, which is only 0.2 yppl better than an average defense would perform at Texas. I project 318 yards at 5.3 yppl for Miami in this game.

Miami actually has the best defense in this game, as the Hurricanes have been 1.7 yppl better than average in holding their FBS opponents to just 4.5 yppl (with starters in the game) while those teams would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average FBS defense. Texas A&M’s offense was equally good, rating at 1.7 yppl better than average with 6.8 yppl against teams that would allow just 5.1 yppl to an average attack. I project 329 yards at 5.5 yppl for A&M in this game.

This game is very close from the line of scrimmage and Miami projects to be a bit better in projected turnovers while these teams are even in special teams with Miami having a much better field goal kicker but A&M being better in net punting and kickoffs.

I get Texas A&M by 0.4 points and 45.7 total points and Miami would be a Lean at +3.5 -115 or better.