Miami Fla @

North Carolina

Sat, Oct 14
ABC
4:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 153
Odds: North Carolina -3.5, Total: 57

Game Analysis

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2-Star Best Bet – **Miami-Florida (+3.5 -115)  30   NORTH CAROLINA  26

Miami-Florida inexplicably lost at home to Georgia Tech last week because they fumbled on a running play instead of kneeling to run out the clock – and then gave up a 4 plays for 74 yards drive to lose. That game should have never been that close, as Miami had outgained the Yellow Jackets by 270 total yards at the point they should have kneeled. That loss makes Miami and their head coach look bad, but the Hurricanes are a more talented team than North Carolina and I’ll take advantage of the line value that loss gives us here.

North Carolina’s strength is having a good quarterback and a good offense, as Drake Maye has averaged 8.2 yards per pass (although that would be just 7.8 yppp if not for that lucky 77-yard twice tipped TD pass last week against Syracuse) and the Heels have been 0.6 yppl better than average overall offensively after accounting for opposing defenses.

Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke has averaged 9.2 yppp in 4 games against FBS opponents that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average QB and the Canes’ attack has been 1.3 yppl better than average (7.3 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team).

North Carolina’s defense is better this season and that unit rates at 0.4 yppl better than average (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl) but Miami’s defense has been 0.9 yppl better than average in FBS games (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppl) and would rank better if not for that 4 plays for 74 yards they gave up at the end of last week’s game that never should have happened.

So, Miami has a better passing game, a better rushing attack (+0.4 yprp to -0.2 yprp for UNC), and a better defense. Van Dyke threw an uncharacteristic 3 interceptions last week but both quarterbacks have 4 interceptions on the season and Maye is projected to throw only 0.1 fewer picks in this game.

The Hurricanes have clearly been the better team and I’ll take Miami-Florida in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 -115 or better.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Miami Fla
  • North Carolina
MIA
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 36.3 22.3
  • Run Yards 209.3 74.3
  • YPRP 5.8 3.3




Pass





  • Pass Comp 20.5 19.8
  • Pass Att 29.0 36.0
  • Comp % 70.7% 54.9%
  • Pass Yards 281.3 229.8
  • Sacks 1.0 1.8
  • Sack Yards 5.5 8.8
  • Sack % 3.3% 4.6%
  • Pass Plays 30.0 37.8
  • Net Pass Yards 275.8 221.0
  • YPPP 9.2 5.9

Total

  • Total Plays 66.3 60.0
  • Total Yards 485.0 295.3
  • YPPL 7.3 4.9

TO


  • Int 1.0 1.5
  • Int % 3.4% 4.2%
  • Fumbles 0.8 0.5
  • Turnovers 1.8 2.0
 
  • Points 39.0 14.6
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