Game Analysis

Miami-Florida (-3.5) vs Mississippi

My math model favors Miami-Florida by 3.4 points with 54.6 total points.

Miami’s offense should function at a good level against an Ole Miss defense that is just 0.6 yards per play better than average, which is the same as the average FBS defense that the Hurricanes faced this season (and averaged 6.1 yppl and 30.6 points per game against). The Rebels have a good pass defense (0.7 yards per pass play better than average) but they’re just 0.2 yards per rushing play better than average and Miami will likely want to establish the run despite being better off throwing it more in perfect dome conditions. I project 400 yards at 6.4 yppl for Miami in this game with the boost for playing indoors.

What will likely determine this game is how well an elite Ole Miss offense performs against an elite Miami defense. The Rebels are 1.6 yards per play better than average with Trinidad Chambliss at quarterback while Miami’s defense has been 1.8 yppl better than average this season (and a bit better with star safety Keionte Scott back healthy) and the Hurricanes have not allowed more than 24 points in regulation in any game all season – including limiting extremely good Texas A&M and Ohio State offenses to just 17 total points in two playoff games on just 4.9 yards per play.

Mississippi has faced 4 very good defensive teams, including an Oklahoma defense that I rate slightly better than Miami’s defense. Ole Miss scored 34 points against the Sooners, 24 points against LSU and averaged 37 points in two games against Georgia, which indicates that they are more than capable to exceeding expectations against an elite defense. The Rebels ran the ball just 43% of the time in those 4 games, compared to 52% runs in all FBS games, and I expect a similar uptick in throwing in this game. I project 384 yards at 5.6 yppl for Mississippi in this game.

The math model prediction is too close to the market to suggest a bet on this game.