Game Analysis

Miami-Florida (-2.5)  25   FLORIDA  24

Miami has a history of playing worse than their talent level (they have reached their predicted season win total since 2017) but the Hurricanes should be improved given the experience and talent that they have this season. Cameron Ward steps in at quarterback after two productive seasons at Washington State, 1st-Team all ACC WR Xavier Restrepo is back along with #2 receiver Jacolby Brown and 2 time 1st-team All-Pac 12 RB Damien Martinez steps in at running back.

The Miami defense was only 0.5 yppl better than average last season but the talent level is better than that and I expect some improvement from that unit (I rate the defense at 0.7 yppl better than average).

While it’s likely that Miami will be improved, it’s even more likely that Florida’s fortunes will be better in 2024. The Gators’ defense was atrocious last season, rating at 0.9 yppl worse than average, which is about as bad as it gets for an SEC defense. The Gators look improved at all 3 levels and they’re not likely to allow 14.1 yards per reception as they did last season against FBS opponents.

Veteran Graham Mertz returns at quarterback after rating at 0.9 yards per pass play better than average and throwing just 3 interceptions all season, and top running back Montrell Johnson also returns. The loss of top receiver Ricky Pearsall could be an issue, as Pearsall averaged 10.7 yards on the 90 balls targeted at him while the other 3 wide receivers in the rotation combined for just 7.1 yards per target. Adding former Wisconsin WR Chimere Dike should help but I don’t think Mertz will be as good this season without Pearsall.

It will be up to a vastly improved defense, which I think they’ll be, for the Gators to stay close in this game.