Game Analysis

Miami-Florida (-6 ½)  25   DUKE  24

Miami has averaged 571 yards at 9.2 yards per play in their two games, which is incredible regardless of the competition (Bethune-Cookman and Toledo), but that attack will get a real test tonight against a Duke defense that’s allowed an average of just 18 points on just 287 yards at 5.0 yppl to 3 FBS opponents with better than average offenses (Northwestern, Baylor, and North Carolina). Duke is below average offensively despite their 34.0 average points in those 3 games, as the Blue Devils have managed just 5.2 yppl while facing teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team. Overall, Duke is certainly a better than average team but their +4 turnover margin in FBS games has made the Blue Devils look better than they are.

It appears as if the betting market isn’t buying Duke’s 4-0 start (also 4-0 ATS), as the line on this game has gone up, but my math favors Miami by just 4 ½ points and Duke applies to a 95-32-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation. It’s possible that Miami is scary good with Mark Walton averaging 13.0 yards per run, but those numbers are based on just two games and I need more evidence. I favor Duke plus the points and the under.