Game Analysis

Clemson (-9.5)  29   Miami-Florida  19

Miami’s turnover chain has gotten a lot of use this season as the Hurricanes’ defense has 29 turnovers. However, there is a lot of variance in defensive turnovers and they’ve made the Canes look better than they actually are. Miami is a good team, as they rate at 14 points better than an average team from the line of scrimmage and to project to have positive turnovers based on their stats (just not nearly as positive as they’ve been). However, Clemson has a line of scrimmage rating of +23.5 points and Miami’s big play offense (14.1 yards per catch but only 55% completions for Rosier) is not likely to work against a Clemson defense with a devastating pass rush that won’t give Rosier time to stand in the pocket long enough to find receivers down the field. Plus, Clemson not only doesn’t allow many big pass plays (only 11.4 ypc allowed) but they also have allowed just 51.9% completions. Miami will probably connect on one or two big plays but not as many as they normally do and they certainly won’t be able to move the ball consistently in this game. However, the line has moved up to a point where there is no value in this game, as my math model favors Clemson by 9.3 points. I’ll pass.