Game Analysis

Note: This play was released to my subscribers as a Best Bet. The line has since moved so pay attention to the line constraint at the bottom of the write-up.

Best Bet – *Under (57.5) – Memphis (-19)  34   SOUTH ALABAMA  15

Memphis is not the same team this season that they’ve been in the past, as the Tigers don’t have the explosive running back to complement their good pass attack on offense and they are much better defensively this season. The Tigers’ offense still has quarterback Brady White, but White’s good raw numbers last season (7.5 yards per pass play) weren’t actually good considering that his opponents would combine to allow 7.5 yppp to an average quarterback. The big problem for Memphis is the absence of superstar running back Darrell Henderson, who ran for 1909 yards on 214 carries for an amazing 8.9 yards per run (he also averaged 8.9 ypr in 2017). New #1 back Patrick Taylor (485 career runs for 5.5 ypr) is out this week and his replacement Kenneth Gainwell is averaging a modest 5.1 yards per rush through two games (162 yards on 31 runs). Despite the rushing attack being worse than average new offensive coordinator Kevin Johns has run the ball 59% of the time in each of the first two games despite White and the pass attack being the strength of the offense (I rate White as much improved at 0.9 yppp better than average).

Memphis racked up 55 points at 8.2 yppl against a horrible Southern U. defense that would allow 7.7 yppl on the road to an average FBS team but the Tigers only managed 15 points and 4.6 yppl in their opener against and Ole’ Miss team whose defense has been terrible the last 3 seasons. Memphis is averaging just 4.4 yards per rushing play despite the weak competition and running the ball 59% of the time is not a good strategy against a South Alabama defense that is much improved in coach Steve Campbell’s second season. The Jaguars allowed just 4.7 yards per play and only 3.5 yards per rushing play to Nebraska in week 1, which is really impressive (they gave up 4.6 yppl and 14 points last week to Jackson State, which is not impressive). I still rate South Alabama as solidly worse than average defensively overall but their run defense has been really good and it appears as if Memphis is committed to running the ball. I am a bit concerned that 2^nd Team All-SBC DE Tyree Turner may miss another game with a sprained ankle, which would certainly affect the pass rush, but that injury happened early in their game against Nebraska (he didn’t record a tackle) and they still shut down the Cornhuskers’ rushing attack. Memphis is also running their offense at a much slower pace this season (2.18 plays per minute of possession) under their new OC than they did last season (2.51 plays per minute) and that is certainly not reflected in the total on this game.

South Alabama’s offense was 0.8 yards per play worse than average last season and the Jaguars are about the same this season with an improved rushing attack and a less efficient aerial attack (Evan Orth averaged 7.1 yards per pass play last season but has moved on). The Jags also play at a slower than normal pace (2.23 plays per minute last season and 2.31 so far this season) and the Memphis defense looks much improved with a new defensive scheme and 8 returning starters. Memphis held Ole’ Miss to just 10 points on 173 yards at 3.3 yards per play and the very next week the Rebels averaged 6.3 yards per play against Arkansas. I had projected the Memphis defense to go from 0.3 yards per play worse than average last season to 0.3 yppl better than average this season and I now have that unit rated at 0.5 yppl better than average and projected to hold South Alabama to just 4.5 yppl in this game.

I see value in the under here based on both of these teams being better defensively than expected and because the slower pace that Memphis is running their offense under their new OC is not being fully factored into the line. If Memphis decides to throw the ball 59% of the time instead of running it 59% of their plays then they’ll score 40-plus points but the Tigers should have this game well under control and won’t have the need to throw the ball that often. I’ll play Under 57 points or higher in a 1-Star Best Bet (Strong Opinion down to 56 points).