Game Analysis
Memphis (-7.5) 35 SMU 32
My math model favors Memphis by 6.5 points and SMU applies to a very good 204-97-4 ATS home momentum situation that is 46-7 ATS when applying to a home underdog. I like the improving Mustangs based on the strong situation and I also like the Under. SMU has a solid defense (5.8 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl to an average team) but they’re giving up 37.9 points per game because they’ve had 9 non-offensive touchdowns scored against them this season, which is very random. That is also part of the reason my math favors the under in this game.
Rush
-
Run Plays
38.8
37.7
-
Run Yards
266.7
172.7
-
YPRP
7.2
5.0
Pass
-
Pass Comp
18.4
18.7
-
Pass Att
28.9
31.3
-
Comp %
63.7%
59.7%
-
Pass Yards
260.1
232.7
-
Sacks
1.8
2.4
-
Sack Yards
10.8
15.0
-
Sack %
5.9%
7.1%
-
Pass Plays
30.7
33.7
-
Net Pass Yards
249.3
217.7
-
YPPP
8.1
6.5
Total
-
Total Plays
69.5
71.4
-
Total Yards
526.8
405.4
-
YPPL
7.6
5.7
TO
-
Int
0.3
0.6
-
Int %
1.0%
1.9%
-
Fumbles
0.7
0.7
-
Turnovers
1.0
1.3
Rush
-
Run Plays
29.3
44.7
-
Run Yards
120.9
219.9
-
YPRP
4.6
5.3
Pass
-
Pass Comp
20.9
19.3
-
Pass Att
36.3
30.2
-
Comp %
57.5%
64.0%
-
Pass Yards
234.8
228.8
-
Sacks
2.3
2.4
-
Sack Yards
15.0
14.8
-
Sack %
6.0%
7.5%
-
Pass Plays
38.7
32.7
-
Net Pass Yards
219.8
214.0
-
YPPP
5.7
6.6
Total
-
Total Plays
68.0
77.3
-
Total Yards
355.7
448.7
-
YPPL
5.2
5.8
TO
-
Int
0.4
0.8
-
Int %
1.2%
2.6%
-
Fumbles
0.4
1.0
-
Turnovers
0.9
1.8
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/01/18 Mercer |
66-14 |
-27.0
W
|
46/19 |
329/88 |
7.2/4.6 |
1/0 |
28/14 |
39/27 |
428/96 |
0/2 |
0/4 |
11.0/3.1 |
757/184 |
8.9/3.7 |
| 09/08/18 @ Navy |
21-22 |
-7.0
L
|
23/69 |
247/274 |
10.7/4.0 |
3/1 |
15/4 |
25/6 |
139/49 |
1/0 |
1/1 |
5.3/7.0 |
386/323 |
7.9/4.3 |
| 09/14/18 Georgia St. |
59-22 |
-28.0
W
|
33/41 |
344/183 |
10.4/4.5 |
0/0 |
19/19 |
26/34 |
265/137 |
0/1 |
1/2 |
9.8/3.8 |
609/320 |
10.2/4.2 |
| 09/22/18 South Alabama |
52-35 |
-29.5
L
|
43/34 |
287/117 |
6.7/3.4 |
0/2 |
22/24 |
30/32 |
278/349 |
0/0 |
2/2 |
8.7/10.3 |
565/466 |
7.5/6.9 |
| 09/28/18 @ Tulane |
24-40 |
-14.5
L
|
14/50 |
78/343 |
5.6/6.9 |
0/0 |
14/13 |
30/22 |
199/160 |
0/0 |
7/3 |
5.4/6.4 |
277/503 |
5.4/6.7 |
| 10/06/18 Connecticut |
55-14 |
-35.5
W
|
38/29 |
385/113 |
10.1/3.9 |
0/1 |
17/24 |
19/43 |
251/207 |
0/3 |
1/1 |
12.6/4.7 |
636/320 |
11.0/4.4 |
| 10/13/18 UCF |
30-31 |
+5.0
W
|
51/33 |
296/206 |
5.8/6.2 |
2/1 |
17/17 |
29/29 |
202/267 |
0/0 |
1/4 |
6.7/8.1 |
498/473 |
6.1/7.2 |
| 10/20/18 @ Missouri |
33-65 |
+9.5
L
|
40/39 |
210/281 |
5.3/7.2 |
0/0 |
15/24 |
38/32 |
184/376 |
2/0 |
3/0 |
4.5/11.8 |
394/657 |
4.9/9.3 |
| 11/03/18 @ East Carolina |
59-41 |
-11.5
W
|
47/27 |
299/125 |
6.4/4.6 |
0/1 |
21/34 |
30/62 |
345/431 |
0/0 |
2/2 |
10.8/6.7 |
644/556 |
8.2/6.1 |
| 11/10/18 Tulsa |
47-21 |
-17.0
W
|
53/36 |
300/147 |
5.7/4.1 |
1/1 |
16/14 |
23/26 |
202/105 |
0/0 |
0/5 |
8.8/3.4 |
502/252 |
6.6/3.8 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/01/18 @ North Texas |
23-46 |
+4.5
L
|
15/41 |
38/86 |
2.5/2.1 |
0/0 |
12/41 |
24/51 |
139/435 |
1/0 |
4/2 |
5.0/8.2 |
177/521 |
4.1/5.5 |
| 09/07/18 TCU |
12-42 |
+23.0
L
|
29/40 |
150/261 |
5.2/6.5 |
1/1 |
18/15 |
38/28 |
91/146 |
0/1 |
4/0 |
2.2/5.2 |
241/407 |
3.4/6.0 |
| 09/15/18 @ Michigan |
20-45 |
+35.5
W
|
29/40 |
123/200 |
4.2/5.0 |
0/0 |
19/14 |
34/18 |
196/236 |
1/1 |
2/1 |
5.4/12.4 |
319/436 |
4.9/7.4 |
| 09/22/18 Navy |
31-30 |
+7.0
W
|
36/75 |
163/367 |
4.5/4.9 |
1/3 |
24/1 |
32/4 |
163/16 |
0/0 |
1/3 |
4.9/2.3 |
326/383 |
4.7/4.7 |
| 09/29/18 Houston Baptist |
63-27 |
0.0
W
|
48/25 |
269/77 |
5.6/3.1 |
1/2 |
22/28 |
35/51 |
371/216 |
1/1 |
1/2 |
10.3/4.1 |
640/293 |
7.6/3.8 |
| 10/06/18 @ UCF |
20-48 |
+24.0
L
|
36/43 |
100/257 |
2.8/6.0 |
1/0 |
24/20 |
42/37 |
222/303 |
0/1 |
3/0 |
4.9/8.2 |
322/560 |
4.0/7.0 |
| 10/20/18 @ Tulane |
27-23 |
+7.0
W
|
24/41 |
76/196 |
3.2/4.8 |
0/2 |
21/14 |
40/22 |
270/125 |
1/1 |
3/5 |
6.3/4.6 |
346/321 |
5.2/4.7 |
| 10/27/18 Cincinnati |
20-26 |
+8.5
W
|
22/33 |
38/168 |
1.7/5.1 |
0/1 |
22/33 |
43/52 |
313/314 |
1/2 |
2/4 |
7.0/5.6 |
351/482 |
5.2/5.4 |
| 11/03/18 Houston |
45-31 |
+14.0
W
|
36/43 |
211/190 |
5.9/4.4 |
1/2 |
28/11 |
44/22 |
313/155 |
0/0 |
1/4 |
7.0/6.0 |
524/345 |
6.5/5.0 |
| 11/10/18 @ Connecticut |
62-50 |
-19.0
L
|
37/46 |
324/387 |
8.8/8.4 |
0/0 |
20/25 |
30/38 |
271/196 |
0/1 |
1/3 |
8.7/4.8 |
595/583 |
8.8/6.7 |
Memphis
@ 
SMU