Game Analysis
Lean – Memphis (+7) 28 Penn State 31
Memphis is extremely excited about playing in this major bowl game and the Group of 5 teams that make it to a major bowl have significantly outplayed expectations. In the 5 years of the current system the one Group of 5 team selected to play in a major bowl game are 3-1-1 ATS with the one spread loss being by just ½ a point. The average line is those games is +7.3 points and the G of 5 team’s average margin has been +2.6 points. Three of the five have won straight up as underdogs and the other two have lost by 8 points (as dogs of 8 and 7.5 points). Penn State may not be as thrilled to be playing in this game as they would be if they were playing a traditional national power and my math model doesn’t see the Nittany Lions as being that much better than Memphis.
The Memphis offense is very good, as the Tigers averaged 40.5 points on close to 500 yards per game at 7.2 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 30.3 points and 5.8 yppl to an average team. That offense will certainly be challenged by a very good Penn State defense that yielded just 14.7 points per game and 4.8 yppl against teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average defense. That 14.7 points allowed is much lower than what would be projected by the Lions’ stats and they did allowed 31 points, 27 points and 28 points in 3 late season games against good offensive teams (Minnesota, Indiana and Ohio State), so Memphis should be able to score a decent numbers of points, especially given the enhanced field position provided by their elite special teams units that were 5.4 points better than average. The math projects 408 total yards at 5.9 yppl for the Tigers in this game.
Memphis has a pretty good defense that has been 0.4 yppl better than average (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team) but the Tigers’ stop unit is at a disadvantage against a very good Penn State attack that rates at 1.0 yppl better than average with quarterback Sean Clifford behind center. The math projects 445 yards at 6.5 yppl for Penn State in this game.
Overall the math favors the Nittany Lions by just 2.7 points, with 59.3 total points, and I’ll lean with Memphis plus the points.
Rush
-
Run Plays
42.5
37.3
-
Run Yards
258.1
169.2
-
YPRP
6.3
5.0
Pass
-
Pass Comp
18.2
19.8
-
Pass Att
29.3
35.7
-
Comp %
62.1%
55.3%
-
Pass Yards
249.7
261.1
-
Sacks
1.6
2.7
-
Sack Yards
9.2
18.1
-
Sack %
5.1%
6.9%
-
Pass Plays
30.9
38.4
-
Net Pass Yards
240.5
242.9
-
YPPP
7.8
6.3
Total
-
Total Plays
73.4
75.7
-
Total Yards
507.8
430.3
-
YPPL
6.9
5.7
TO
-
Int
0.8
0.7
-
Int %
2.8%
2.0%
-
Fumbles
0.5
0.8
-
Turnovers
1.3
1.6
Rush
-
Run Plays
34.3
37.0
-
Run Yards
171.3
146.8
-
YPRP
5.5
4.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
16.2
17.6
-
Pass Att
28.8
32.2
-
Comp %
56.3%
54.8%
-
Pass Yards
208.6
200.7
-
Sacks
2.6
3.5
-
Sack Yards
16.2
21.9
-
Sack %
8.4%
9.8%
-
Pass Plays
31.4
35.6
-
Net Pass Yards
192.4
178.8
-
YPPP
6.1
5.0
Total
-
Total Plays
65.7
72.6
-
Total Yards
379.9
347.5
-
YPPL
5.8
4.8
TO
-
Int
0.7
0.9
-
Int %
2.6%
2.6%
-
Fumbles
0.8
0.8
-
Turnovers
1.6
1.7
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
10/06/18 Connecticut |
55-14 |
-35.5
W
|
38/29 |
385/113 |
10.1/3.9 |
0/1 |
17/24 |
19/43 |
251/207 |
0/3 |
1/1 |
12.6/4.7 |
636/320 |
11.0/4.4 |
10/13/18 UCF |
30-31 |
+5.0
W
|
51/33 |
296/206 |
5.8/6.2 |
2/1 |
17/17 |
29/29 |
202/267 |
0/0 |
1/4 |
6.7/8.1 |
498/473 |
6.1/7.2 |
10/20/18 @ Missouri |
33-65 |
+9.5
L
|
40/39 |
210/281 |
5.3/7.2 |
0/0 |
15/24 |
38/32 |
184/376 |
2/0 |
3/0 |
4.5/11.8 |
394/657 |
4.9/9.3 |
11/03/18 @ East Carolina |
59-41 |
-11.5
W
|
47/27 |
299/125 |
6.4/4.6 |
0/1 |
21/34 |
30/62 |
345/431 |
0/0 |
2/2 |
10.8/6.7 |
644/556 |
8.2/6.1 |
11/10/18 Tulsa |
47-21 |
-17.0
W
|
53/36 |
300/147 |
5.7/4.1 |
1/1 |
16/14 |
23/26 |
202/105 |
0/0 |
0/5 |
8.8/3.4 |
502/252 |
6.6/3.8 |
11/16/18 @ SMU |
28-18 |
-7.5
W
|
41/21 |
212/63 |
5.2/3.0 |
0/2 |
18/30 |
31/57 |
226/304 |
2/1 |
0/5 |
7.3/4.9 |
438/367 |
6.1/4.4 |
11/23/18 Houston |
52-31 |
-7.5
W
|
55/36 |
417/173 |
7.6/4.8 |
0/0 |
21/18 |
33/43 |
196/221 |
2/1 |
2/5 |
5.6/4.6 |
613/394 |
6.8/4.7 |
12/01/18 @ UCF |
41-56 |
+3.5
L
|
43/60 |
414/362 |
9.6/6.0 |
0/3 |
18/19 |
30/27 |
169/345 |
1/0 |
2/1 |
5.3/12.3 |
583/707 |
7.8/8.0 |
12/22/18 @ Wake Forest |
34-37 |
-3.5
L
|
50/47 |
225/216 |
4.5/4.6 |
0/0 |
15/22 |
28/40 |
153/315 |
1/1 |
3/2 |
4.9/7.5 |
378/531 |
4.7/6.0 |
08/31/19 Mississippi |
15-10 |
-4.5
W
|
47/30 |
203/92 |
4.3/3.1 |
0/0 |
23/9 |
31/19 |
163/81 |
1/1 |
2/3 |
4.9/3.7 |
366/173 |
4.6/3.3 |
09/07/19 Southern University |
55-24 |
0.0
W
|
41/36 |
184/182 |
4.5/5.1 |
1/0 |
23/9 |
28/19 |
390/96 |
0/0 |
1/2 |
13.4/4.6 |
574/278 |
8.2/4.9 |
09/14/19 @ South Alabama |
42-6 |
-19.0
W
|
44/37 |
321/114 |
7.3/3.1 |
1/2 |
14/9 |
22/26 |
231/93 |
1/1 |
1/2 |
10.0/3.3 |
552/207 |
8.2/3.2 |
09/26/19 Navy |
35-23 |
-11.0
W
|
19/64 |
140/305 |
7.4/4.8 |
1/1 |
14/6 |
18/12 |
174/72 |
0/1 |
3/2 |
8.3/5.1 |
314/377 |
7.9/4.8 |
10/05/19 @ UL Monroe |
52-33 |
-14.0
W
|
33/42 |
298/277 |
9.0/6.6 |
1/0 |
15/24 |
24/45 |
239/298 |
1/1 |
2/2 |
9.2/6.3 |
537/575 |
9.1/6.5 |
10/12/19 @ Temple |
28-30 |
-4.5
L
|
30/48 |
146/198 |
4.9/4.1 |
3/2 |
28/24 |
43/37 |
347/263 |
1/0 |
3/0 |
7.5/7.1 |
493/461 |
6.5/5.4 |
10/19/19 Tulane |
47-17 |
-3.5
W
|
33/32 |
140/169 |
4.2/5.3 |
0/0 |
21/15 |
29/28 |
358/129 |
0/3 |
0/2 |
12.3/4.3 |
498/298 |
8.0/4.8 |
10/26/19 @ Tulsa |
42-41 |
-10.0
L
|
33/58 |
192/289 |
5.8/5.0 |
2/0 |
16/23 |
26/40 |
306/295 |
0/0 |
0/3 |
11.8/6.9 |
498/584 |
8.4/5.8 |
11/02/19 SMU |
54-48 |
-5.5
W
|
32/21 |
198/122 |
6.2/5.8 |
0/0 |
19/34 |
33/55 |
333/437 |
0/0 |
4/3 |
9.0/7.5 |
531/559 |
7.7/7.1 |
11/16/19 @ Houston |
45-27 |
-10.5
W
|
37/27 |
184/115 |
5.0/4.3 |
0/1 |
23/14 |
35/22 |
360/140 |
1/0 |
1/3 |
10.0/5.6 |
544/255 |
7.5/4.9 |
11/23/19 @ South Florida |
49-10 |
-14.0
W
|
56/27 |
348/152 |
6.2/5.6 |
0/0 |
19/6 |
31/19 |
233/55 |
2/0 |
1/4 |
7.3/2.4 |
581/207 |
6.6/4.1 |
11/29/19 Cincinnati |
34-24 |
-12.0
L
|
35/40 |
202/208 |
5.8/5.2 |
0/1 |
15/20 |
26/32 |
232/199 |
1/2 |
1/5 |
8.6/5.4 |
434/407 |
7.0/5.3 |
12/07/19 Cincinnati |
29-24 |
-9.0
L
|
42/38 |
215/213 |
5.1/5.6 |
0/1 |
18/16 |
40/36 |
234/231 |
1/1 |
2/1 |
5.6/6.2 |
449/444 |
5.3/5.9 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
10/13/18 Michigan St. |
17-21 |
-13.0
L
|
30/33 |
214/138 |
7.1/4.2 |
1/0 |
19/25 |
32/53 |
185/281 |
0/1 |
1/3 |
5.6/5.0 |
399/419 |
6.3/4.7 |
10/20/18 @ Indiana |
33-28 |
-14.5
L
|
33/39 |
190/268 |
5.8/6.9 |
1/2 |
20/35 |
37/55 |
227/286 |
1/1 |
3/6 |
5.7/4.7 |
417/554 |
5.7/5.5 |
10/27/18 Iowa |
30-24 |
-6.5
L
|
31/33 |
158/161 |
5.1/4.9 |
1/0 |
13/18 |
29/49 |
179/184 |
1/2 |
3/3 |
5.6/3.5 |
337/345 |
5.3/4.1 |
11/03/18 @ Michigan |
7-42 |
+10.0
L
|
25/50 |
106/266 |
4.2/5.3 |
1/0 |
8/11 |
17/17 |
82/139 |
2/0 |
5/1 |
3.7/7.7 |
188/405 |
4.0/6.0 |
11/10/18 Wisconsin |
22-10 |
-8.5
W
|
42/32 |
223/255 |
5.3/8.0 |
2/2 |
19/9 |
25/20 |
133/20 |
0/2 |
3/5 |
4.8/0.8 |
356/275 |
5.1/4.8 |
11/17/18 @ Rutgers |
20-7 |
-28.0
L
|
37/51 |
146/220 |
3.9/4.3 |
1/1 |
17/5 |
37/16 |
183/16 |
1/2 |
0/4 |
4.9/0.8 |
329/236 |
4.4/3.3 |
11/24/18 Maryland |
38-3 |
-13.5
W
|
43/31 |
305/85 |
7.1/2.7 |
1/0 |
14/14 |
24/23 |
248/174 |
0/0 |
1/5 |
9.9/6.2 |
553/259 |
8.1/4.4 |
01/01/19 Kentucky |
24-27 |
-6.0
L
|
34/38 |
197/190 |
5.8/5.0 |
1/0 |
17/9 |
33/15 |
210/107 |
1/0 |
5/4 |
5.5/5.6 |
407/297 |
5.7/5.2 |
08/31/19 Idaho |
79-7 |
0.0
W
|
44/21 |
339/57 |
7.7/2.7 |
1/0 |
25/16 |
37/26 |
334/88 |
0/1 |
1/7 |
8.8/2.7 |
673/145 |
8.2/2.7 |
09/07/19 Buffalo |
45-13 |
-30.5
W
|
19/57 |
101/168 |
5.3/2.9 |
1/1 |
16/16 |
22/32 |
268/239 |
0/1 |
3/1 |
10.7/7.2 |
369/407 |
8.4/4.5 |
09/14/19 Pittsburgh |
17-10 |
-17.5
L
|
29/21 |
189/40 |
6.5/1.9 |
0/0 |
14/35 |
30/51 |
200/358 |
0/0 |
3/3 |
6.1/6.6 |
389/398 |
6.3/5.3 |
09/27/19 @ Maryland |
59-0 |
-6.5
W
|
40/30 |
201/90 |
5.0/3.0 |
0/1 |
32/11 |
39/24 |
478/45 |
1/2 |
0/4 |
12.3/1.6 |
679/135 |
8.6/2.3 |
10/05/19 Purdue |
35-7 |
-26.0
W
|
43/18 |
211/56 |
4.9/3.1 |
2/1 |
20/14 |
29/28 |
254/37 |
1/0 |
1/10 |
8.5/1.0 |
465/93 |
6.4/1.7 |
10/12/19 @ Iowa |
17-12 |
-3.5
W
|
48/28 |
204/87 |
4.3/3.1 |
0/1 |
12/25 |
24/43 |
104/269 |
0/1 |
3/2 |
3.9/6.0 |
308/356 |
4.1/4.9 |
10/19/19 Michigan |
28-21 |
-7.5
L
|
24/39 |
118/150 |
4.9/3.8 |
0/0 |
14/24 |
25/41 |
175/269 |
0/1 |
2/1 |
6.5/6.4 |
293/419 |
5.7/5.2 |
10/26/19 @ Michigan St. |
28-7 |
-5.0
W
|
34/28 |
131/95 |
3.9/3.4 |
0/2 |
18/19 |
32/43 |
176/189 |
1/2 |
2/2 |
5.2/4.2 |
307/284 |
4.5/3.9 |
11/09/19 @ Minnesota |
26-31 |
-6.5
L
|
27/37 |
188/133 |
7.0/3.6 |
0/1 |
23/18 |
43/20 |
330/331 |
3/0 |
2/1 |
7.3/15.8 |
518/464 |
7.2/8.0 |
11/16/19 Indiana |
34-27 |
-14.5
L
|
40/29 |
215/102 |
5.4/3.5 |
1/2 |
11/31 |
23/41 |
158/360 |
0/0 |
3/2 |
6.1/8.4 |
373/462 |
5.7/6.4 |
11/23/19 @ Ohio St. |
17-28 |
+18.5
W
|
31/56 |
134/272 |
4.3/4.9 |
0/3 |
16/16 |
28/22 |
100/160 |
1/0 |
6/3 |
2.9/6.4 |
234/432 |
3.6/5.3 |
11/30/19 Rutgers |
27-6 |
-40.0
L
|
41/41 |
293/195 |
7.1/4.8 |
0/0 |
8/15 |
15/27 |
58/157 |
1/0 |
4/3 |
3.1/5.2 |
351/352 |
5.9/5.0 |