Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *CHARLOTTE (+11.5) over Memphis

I’ll post a predicted score when the status of Memphis QB Seth Henigan and RB Blake Watson is determined.

I was going to release Charlotte on Monday at +12 and right before the release the news broke that Memphis quarterback Seth Henigan was injured and questionable to play this week. Eventually the line settled at +11.5 and I grabbed it because I liked Charlotte in this game even with Henigan 100% healthy.

Henigan is a decent quarterback that has been 0.2 yards per pass play better than average this season (7.3 yppp against FBS teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average QB) and the Memphis offense (0.2 yppl better than average) would probably be worse if he doesn’t play but the value against Memphis is based on their defense.

The Tigers have give up 6.6 yards per play and 7.5 yppp this season despite facing Arkansas State’s two worst quarterbacks (who no longer play) in the opener and then facing UAB’s 2nd, 3rd, and 4th string QBs a few weeks ago. In their 6 games against FBS teams playing their starting quarterback the Tigers have given up 8.8 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to allow 6.3 yppp against an average defensive team. Memphis also doesn’t defend the run well (5.7 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an average defense).

I’m not confident that Charlotte’s quarterbacks (1.9 yppp worse than average) can take full advantage of a Memphis defense that has been 2.5 yppp worse than average when not facing opposing backup quarterbacks) but the 49ers should have good success running the ball, which is what they prefer to do. The 49ers just averaged 6.0 yppl and scored 33 points against Tulsa, who is the worst defensive team they’ve faced until facing Memphis this week, so they are capable of putting up points against a bad defense. Memphis, meanwhile, just played gave up 50 points on 595 yards at 6.8 yppl to a bad South Florida offense that had been 0.7 yppl worse than average offensively heading into that game.

Charlotte should score around 26 points according to my model and Memphis would have to play better than normal offensively to cover the number. That would be difficult to do if Henigan is not 100%, although I’m assuming he’ll play and be at 100%, or if star RB Blake Watson is unable to play. Watson injured his leg in the 4th quarter of last week’s game and is listed as questionable to play. Watson has 826 rushing yards at 6.4 ypr (the backups average just 4.5 ypr) and he’s caught 35 of 40 passes for 352 yards out of the backfield, which will also not be easily replaced if he’s out.

I would have made Charlotte a Best Bet here at +10 or more even if Henigan and Watson were both 100% healthy. In fact, my math model pegs the 49ers as a 2-Star worthy play. I just don’t trust their offense enough to make this a 2-Star Best Bet. Charlotte is a 1-Star Best Bet at +10 or more and that constraint may be adjusted lower depending on Memphis injury updates.