Game Analysis

Note: I already had a Lean on the Under but NIU became a Lean (i.e. a 4-point difference in the line on a side) when the line dropped to -15 early in the morning.

Lean – NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-15)  28   Massachusetts  9

Lean – Under (43.5)

Northern Illinois got attention for beating Notre Dame in week 2 but they’ve been unlucky in losing each of their games since that big upset. The Huskies lost in OT to Buffalo despite having a 362 yards to 185 yards advantage from the line of scrimmage and last week lost by 7 at NC State because of 14 points coming directly from fumbles – one fumble returned for an NC State touchdown and the other returned to the 1-yard line, which the Wolfpack cashed in a few plays later. NIU outplayed NC State from the line of scrimmage in that game and held the Wolfpack to just 177 yards at 3.8 yards per play.

Northern Illinois also held Notre Dame to just 4.8 yppl and have allowed just 4.1 yppl in 3 games against FBS teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defense. U Mass has a horrible offense that has managed only 4.7 yppl against a schedule that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team and I don’t see how the Minutemen are going to move the ball in the windy conditions expected against a dominating defense.

Northern Illinois has a run-oriented offense that is even less likely to take advantage of a horrible UMass pass defense in the windy conditions, which usually lead to more running. The Minutemen have been 2.1 yards per pass play worse than average defensively but they’re just 0.3 yards per rushing play worse than average while holding teams to only 4.4 yprp (those teams would average 4.1 yprp against an average defense). NIU, despite loving to run the ball, has only averaged 4.2 yprp in 3 games against FBS teams (that would allow 5.0 yprp to an average team), so I don’t see their offense exploding in this game.

Lean under 43 points or more.