Game Analysis

Maryland (-3.5)  31   Virginia Tech  25

My math was leaning with Maryland by 2.5 points when the opening line of Virginia Tech -2.5 was posted, and the math still leans with the Terrapins by the same amount after adjusting for all of Virginia Tech’s defections.

The Hokies will be without quarterback Braxton Burmeister, top two receivers Tre Turner and Tayvion Robinson (also averaged 13.7 yards on 24 punt returns) and 3 defensive starters in DT Jordan Williams, DE Amare Barno, and CB Jermaine Waller, who led the team with 9 passes defended, including 4 interceptions.

Virginia Tech’s offense will be significantly worse. Burmeister was not a good passer (just 6.3 yppp against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback) but he ran for 718 yards on 91 runs (7.9 yprp). The Hokies will start #3 quarterback Connor Blumrick (#2 QB Kadum decided to transfer), who has shown nothing as a passer (29 yards on 18 pass plays) but ran for 244 yards on 39 runs (6.3 yprp). It’s likely that Blumick’s passing will be better than he’s shown so far but not having Turner and Robinson, who combined for 8.3 yards on 149 targets. The rest of the receivers combined for just 7.1 YPT, which equates to 0.6 yards per pass play. I dropped the Hokies’ yppp rating another 0.6 yppp, which is the typical drop-off between the starter and a backup, but it could be more than that.

Maryland is much better defending the run (0.2 yprp better than average) than they are defending the pass (0.8 yppp worse than average). I expect the Hokies to run the ball at least two-thirds of the time and Virginia Tech running it more makes the Maryland defense relatively better than it is. Virginia Tech is projected to gain 355 yards at 5.3 yppl, but I can certainly imagine the Hokies being even worse.

Maryland’s offense is led by Taulia Tagovailoa, who completed 68.4% of his passes for 6.9 yards per pass play against FBS opponents that would combine to allow just 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback. The aerial attack hasn’t been quite as good the second half of the season after losing big-play WR Dontay Demus, who averaged 101 receiving yards and 14.5 yards per target in 5 games before getting injured. I have Maryland rated at 0.5 yppl better than average without Demus and project 447 total yards at 6.6 yppl in this game against a Hokies’ defensive that was just 0.1 yppl better than average in the regular season and will be missing 3 of their best defenders (I rate the unit at 0.3 yppl worse than average heading into this game).

My math favors Maryland by 6 points with a total of 56 points.