Game Analysis
PENN STATE (-13.5) 31 Maryland 22
Maryland applies to a negative 28-85-1 ATS situation that plays against teams that lose a close game as a big underdog and I can certainly envision the Terrapins having nothing left in their emotional tank after last week’s heartbreaking overtime loss to Ohio State.
However, Maryland is the only qualified math play of the week and the math model has a better long term track record than the situational analysis.
Rush
-
Run Plays
38.0
39.8
-
Run Yards
250.8
166.8
-
YPRP
7.0
4.5
Pass
-
Pass Comp
10.1
15.5
-
Pass Att
19.8
28.5
-
Comp %
50.9%
54.3%
-
Pass Yards
137.3
191.0
-
Sacks
2.1
1.6
-
Sack Yards
13.5
11.0
-
Sack %
9.5%
5.2%
-
Pass Plays
21.9
30.0
-
Net Pass Yards
123.8
180.0
-
YPPP
5.7
6.0
Total
-
Total Plays
59.9
69.8
-
Total Yards
388.1
357.8
-
YPPL
6.5
5.1
TO
-
Int
0.5
1.6
-
Int %
2.3%
5.8%
-
Fumbles
0.8
0.4
-
Turnovers
1.3
2.0
Rush
-
Run Plays
36.8
38.6
-
Run Yards
205.7
182.3
-
YPRP
6.0
5.3
Pass
-
Pass Comp
15.9
18.1
-
Pass Att
29.2
34.3
-
Comp %
54.5%
52.8%
-
Pass Yards
200.9
185.9
-
Sacks
2.1
3.4
-
Sack Yards
13.7
22.6
-
Sack %
6.7%
8.9%
-
Pass Plays
31.3
37.6
-
Net Pass Yards
187.2
163.3
-
YPPP
6.0
4.3
Total
-
Total Plays
68.1
76.3
-
Total Yards
406.6
368.2
-
YPPL
6.0
4.8
TO
-
Int
0.6
1.2
-
Int %
2.2%
3.4%
-
Fumbles
1.0
0.6
-
Turnovers
1.6
1.8
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/01/18 Texas |
34-29 |
+13.5
W
|
42/35 |
157/148 |
3.7/4.2 |
0/1 |
21/21 |
34/39 |
255/259 |
0/2 |
1/1 |
7.3/6.5 |
412/407 |
5.4/5.4 |
| 09/08/18 @ Bowling Green |
45-14 |
-16.0
W
|
51/23 |
450/57 |
8.8/2.5 |
1/0 |
8/17 |
16/27 |
121/101 |
0/1 |
0/5 |
7.6/3.2 |
571/158 |
8.5/2.9 |
| 09/15/18 Temple |
14-35 |
-15.0
L
|
26/52 |
162/165 |
6.2/3.2 |
0/0 |
8/16 |
21/27 |
33/264 |
2/1 |
5/0 |
1.3/9.8 |
195/429 |
3.8/5.4 |
| 09/22/18 Minnesota |
42-13 |
-2.5
W
|
36/36 |
316/128 |
8.8/3.6 |
0/1 |
10/14 |
14/32 |
116/135 |
0/2 |
1/4 |
7.7/3.8 |
432/263 |
8.5/3.7 |
| 10/06/18 @ Michigan |
21-42 |
+17.5
L
|
34/40 |
159/171 |
4.7/4.3 |
0/0 |
7/20 |
13/28 |
62/294 |
1/1 |
2/0 |
4.1/10.5 |
221/465 |
4.5/6.8 |
| 10/13/18 Rutgers |
34-7 |
-24.0
W
|
38/44 |
300/180 |
7.9/4.1 |
1/0 |
9/2 |
20/17 |
76/1 |
0/5 |
1/1 |
3.6/0.1 |
376/181 |
6.4/2.9 |
| 10/20/18 @ Iowa |
0-23 |
+10.0
L
|
21/52 |
91/224 |
4.3/4.3 |
1/0 |
6/11 |
16/23 |
34/86 |
1/1 |
2/0 |
1.9/3.7 |
125/310 |
3.2/4.1 |
| 10/27/18 Illinois |
63-33 |
-17.5
W
|
46/35 |
461/164 |
10.0/4.7 |
0/0 |
13/14 |
21/32 |
275/139 |
0/1 |
1/0 |
12.5/4.3 |
736/303 |
10.8/4.5 |
| 11/03/18 Michigan St. |
3-24 |
+3.0
L
|
23/43 |
74/283 |
3.2/6.6 |
2/0 |
8/11 |
24/22 |
38/78 |
0/2 |
5/1 |
1.3/3.4 |
112/361 |
2.2/5.5 |
| 11/10/18 @ Indiana |
32-34 |
+3.0
W
|
58/23 |
358/155 |
6.2/6.7 |
3/0 |
14/16 |
25/28 |
184/222 |
1/1 |
1/4 |
7.1/6.9 |
542/377 |
6.5/6.9 |
| 11/17/18 Ohio St. |
51-52 |
+16.5
W
|
43/55 |
379/281 |
8.8/5.1 |
1/2 |
7/28 |
14/38 |
168/401 |
0/1 |
4/1 |
9.3/10.3 |
547/682 |
9.0/7.3 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/01/18 Appalachian State |
45-38 |
-23.5
L
|
41/35 |
215/173 |
5.2/4.9 |
0/0 |
21/26 |
36/39 |
222/278 |
0/1 |
1/2 |
6.0/6.8 |
437/451 |
5.6/5.9 |
| 09/08/18 @ Pittsburgh |
51-6 |
-7.5
W
|
32/47 |
219/283 |
6.8/6.0 |
2/2 |
15/9 |
31/18 |
149/24 |
0/1 |
1/4 |
4.7/1.1 |
368/307 |
5.8/4.4 |
| 09/15/18 Kent State |
63-10 |
-35.0
W
|
44/29 |
306/92 |
7.0/3.2 |
0/0 |
14/21 |
25/40 |
264/134 |
1/0 |
1/7 |
10.2/2.9 |
570/226 |
8.1/3.0 |
| 09/21/18 @ Illinois |
63-24 |
-27.5
W
|
50/44 |
400/264 |
8.0/6.0 |
1/0 |
13/18 |
20/31 |
167/166 |
1/2 |
1/1 |
8.0/5.2 |
567/430 |
8.0/5.7 |
| 09/29/18 Ohio St. |
26-27 |
+3.5
W
|
40/32 |
237/134 |
5.9/4.2 |
1/0 |
16/22 |
32/39 |
268/268 |
0/1 |
4/1 |
7.4/6.7 |
505/402 |
6.6/5.6 |
| 10/13/18 Michigan St. |
17-21 |
-13.0
L
|
30/33 |
214/138 |
7.1/4.2 |
1/0 |
19/25 |
32/53 |
185/281 |
0/1 |
1/3 |
5.6/5.0 |
399/419 |
6.3/4.7 |
| 10/20/18 @ Indiana |
33-28 |
-14.5
L
|
33/39 |
190/268 |
5.8/6.9 |
1/2 |
20/35 |
37/55 |
227/286 |
1/1 |
3/6 |
5.7/4.7 |
417/554 |
5.7/5.5 |
| 10/27/18 Iowa |
30-24 |
-6.5
L
|
31/33 |
158/161 |
5.1/4.9 |
1/0 |
13/18 |
29/49 |
179/184 |
1/2 |
3/3 |
5.6/3.5 |
337/345 |
5.3/4.1 |
| 11/03/18 @ Michigan |
7-42 |
+10.0
L
|
25/50 |
106/266 |
4.2/5.3 |
1/0 |
8/11 |
17/17 |
82/139 |
2/0 |
5/1 |
3.7/7.7 |
188/405 |
4.0/6.0 |
| 11/10/18 Wisconsin |
22-10 |
-8.5
W
|
42/32 |
223/255 |
5.3/8.0 |
2/2 |
19/9 |
25/20 |
133/20 |
0/2 |
3/5 |
4.8/0.8 |
356/275 |
5.1/4.8 |
| 11/17/18 @ Rutgers |
20-7 |
-28.0
L
|
37/51 |
146/220 |
3.9/4.3 |
1/1 |
17/5 |
37/16 |
183/16 |
1/2 |
0/4 |
4.9/0.8 |
329/236 |
4.4/3.3 |
Maryland
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