Marshall vs


at Conway SC
Mon, Dec 19
11:30 AM Pacific
Rotation: 219
Odds: Connecticut +10.5, Total: 40.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Marshall (-10.5)  28   Connecticut  13

Connecticut is the 117th best team in the nation yet the Huskies managed to win 6 games despite being outscored by 6.3 points per game, outgained by 88 yards per contest and by 0.7 yppl by a schedule of opponents that collectively are 1.0 yards per play and 8.1 points per game worse than an average FCS teams. The Huskies managed to beat two bowl teams, Fresno State with their backup QB and Liberty, but they were about 9 points worse than average in those seemingly impressive wins.

Connecticut is 1.0 yards per play worse than average on offense (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) and the Huskies scored an average of 8 points in 3 games against good defensive teams Syracuse (14 points), Michigan (0 points) and NC State (10 poitns) and the Huskies are projected to score just 13 points against a very good Marshall defense that allowed just 17.4 points per game and 4.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an averaged defensive team. Gardner Webb is the only team that Marshall faced that is close to as bad offensively as UConn is and they held Gardner Webb to 7 points.

The Huskies’ offense is predicated on running the ball, as they average over 200 yards rushing per game at 5.4 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.4 yprp) but Marshall is extremely tough to run the ball against as only Troy and Georgia Southern averaged more than 4.1 yprp against the Thundering Herd defense this season (and Troy managed just 4.7 yprp). Connecticut only faced two good run defenses (Michigan and NC State) and the Huskies managed just 3.3 yprp in those games, which is 0.7 yprp worse than an average team would have run for against the Wolverines and Wolfpack. If Connecticut can’t run the ball then they have no chance with an aerial attack that managed just 4.4 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average quarterback. Marshall is 1.1 yppp better than average and held Gardner Webb, the only offense they faced that is close to as bad throwing the ball (GW is 1.0 yppp better than UConn) to just 2.5 yppp. Connecticut averaged just 1.2 yppp in two games against elite pass defenses and are projected to average only 3.4 yppp in this game while managing only 4.4 yprp.

Marshall’s offense, which is 0.7 yppl worse than average, is projected to gain 432 yards at 6.0 yppl against a UConn defense that has been 0.8 yppl worse than average this season. The projected stats would predict 31 points for Marshall in this game but the Thundering Herd averaged only 21.4 points per game on their 388 total yards per game, which is well below expectations due to their inability to score in the red zone. Marshall managed to average only 3.95 points per red zone opportunity in their 11 games against FBS teams, which is well below the 4.7 PPRZ expected based on their overall offensive numbers. If they continue to struggle converting red zone opportunities into points then their projected yardage would equate to 26.3 points for the Herd in this game, which is still likely to cover the number.

Double-digit underdogs generally perform well in bowl games (89-62-2) but the Huskies don’t apply to any of the big bowl dog angles that I have and the math likes Marshall.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Marshall
  • Connecticut


  • Run Plays 41.6 28.4
  • Run Yards 212.3 115.8
  • YPRP 5.1 4.1


  • Pass Comp 17.2 18.1
  • Pass Att 28.6 34.2
  • Comp % 60.0% 52.9%
  • Pass Yards 195.2 212.2
  • Sacks 3.0 3.2
  • Sack Yards 19.3 19.5
  • Sack % 9.5% 8.5%
  • Pass Plays 31.6 37.4
  • Net Pass Yards 175.9 192.7
  • YPPP 5.6 5.2


  • Total Plays 73.3 65.7
  • Total Yards 388.2 308.5
  • YPPL 5.3 4.7


  • Int 0.7 1.3
  • Int % 2.5% 3.7%
  • Fumbles 0.7 0.8
  • Turnovers 1.5 2.1
  • Points 24.2 16.2
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