Game Analysis

Note: The line has moved up since I posted this analysis. Marshall is only a Lean at -6 or less.

Lean – Marshall (-5.5)  33   COASTAL CAROLINA  23

Marshall’s offense is rolling since Carlos Del Rio-Wilson took over at quarterback, as the Thundering Herd have averaged 39.5 points per game (in regulation) the last 4 games. Del Rio-Wilson has completed 74.4% of his passes with just 1 interception and his success should continue against Coastal Carolina tonight. Coastal is not bad defensively by Sun Belt Conference standards (0.3 yppl worse than average on a national scale) but they’ve played two better than average offensive teams this season and gave up 48 points to Virginia and 47 points to Old Dominion. Marshall isn’t as good as those teams, but they’re better offensively than East Carolina (38 points vs Coastal Carolina) and Appalachian State (37 points vs Coastal).

Marshall’s defense has been an issue this season, but their problem is defending the pass (2.0 yards per pass play worse than average) and the Chanticleers are one of the nation’s worst passing teams. Coastal has had success the last two weeks with Samari Collier at quarterback because he can run the ball (171 yards on 27 runs the last two games) and the offense has run the ball 87 times against just 44 pass plays. The issue with that is Marshall is good defending the run (5.0 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yprp against an average defense) and running the ball two-thirds of the time plays into the Herd’s strength.

Marshall would qualify as a Best Bet based solely on my math model but Coastal Carolina applies to a 93-38-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation that will keep me from making the Thundering Herd a play. I’ll still lean with Marshall though at -6 or less.