Game Analysis

Lsu (-3 ½)  27   AUBURN  24

LSU fans are excited about Danny Etling taking over for Brandon Harris at quarterback, but it’s not good news when Danny Etling is your savior. Etling was horrible in his two years at Purdue, averaging just 4.6 yards on 471 pass plays (against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback) and completing 56.8% of his 44 passes this season is certainly no indication that Etling suddenly has become a good passer. The Tigers barely beat a struggling Mississippi State team 23-20 on their home field in Etling’s first start so I really don’t understand the enthusiasm. But, as long as Etling can take a snap from center, turn around and hand the ball off to Leonard Fournette he should be fine.

Fournette is not putting up the numbers expected of him so far (just 5.6 ypr after 6.5 ypr last season) but a lot of that has to do with opponents having no fear of the Tigers’ pass attack – something which is probably not going to change with Etling at quarterback. It also doesn’t help that 4 offensive linemen were injured last week against Miss State and two of them may still be out this week (Weathersby is out and Boutte is questionable).

Auburn has a better than average run defense, despite the 7.3 yprp they allowed to Texas A&M last week, but the Tigers can be beaten through the air so Etling will have his opportunity to connect with open receivers in one-on-one coverage. The math projects a decent 399 yards at 5.8 yards per play for the Tigers.

Auburn’s offense is running the ball better this season (283 yards at 5.7 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp to an average team) but the aerial attack has been really bad in two of three games (4.7 yppp against Clemson and 3.4 yppp against A&M) and running the ball against LSU is not easy. My model projects 369 yards at 5.3 yppl for Auburn in this game and overall the math favors LSU by just ½ a point. However, LSU applies to a 70-35-1 ATS situation that plays on teams that are winless against the spread for the season, so this certainly could be the week that LSU starts to play up to expectations. I’ll pass on the side of this game but I do favor the Over (44).