Game Analysis
Lean – Over (61.5) – ALABAMA (-3) 37 Louisiana State 32
LSU has the best offense in the nation – and it’s not even close. The Tigers have averaged 8.3 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average offense and they’ve averaged 7.2 yards per play or more in every game this season – which includes games against good defensive teams Florida State, Mississippi, and Missouri.
Alabama has the best defense that the Tigers have faced. The Crimson Tide are capable of limiting a good offensive team, but Nick Saban’s defenses have always had trouble, relatively, against teams with a running quarterback and Jayden Daniels is an elite runner (612 run yards at 8.4 yards per run, not including sacks).
Alabama should be able to outscore the Tigers, as Jalen Milroe has averaged 7.0 yards per pass play or more in every game he’s played and LSU has allowed 7.3 yards per pass play this season. Bama is also projected to run for over 200 yards at 6.0 yards per rushing play.
The forecast is for no wind or rain, which adds about 3 points, and my math model had this game going over before adjusting for the perfect conditions for scoring. I lean over 63 points or less.
Rush
-
Run Plays
32.6
31.9
-
Run Yards
207.1
170.6
-
YPRP
6.4
5.4
Pass
-
Pass Comp
22.1
19.0
-
Pass Att
30.9
31.3
-
Comp %
71.7%
60.7%
-
Pass Yards
348.3
247.3
-
Sacks
2.4
2.0
-
Sack Yards
11.6
12.0
-
Sack %
7.3%
6.0%
-
Pass Plays
33.3
33.3
-
Net Pass Yards
336.7
235.3
-
YPPP
10.1
7.1
Total
-
Total Plays
65.9
65.2
-
Total Yards
543.9
405.9
-
YPPL
8.3
6.2
TO
-
Int
0.4
1.1
-
Int %
1.4%
3.6%
-
Fumbles
0.3
0.1
-
Turnovers
0.7
1.3
Rush
-
Run Plays
34.1
31.1
-
Run Yards
182.4
135.0
-
YPRP
5.3
4.3
Pass
-
Pass Comp
14.3
19.3
-
Pass Att
22.9
31.8
-
Comp %
62.3%
60.6%
-
Pass Yards
220.8
197.9
-
Sacks
4.5
3.6
-
Sack Yards
31.1
25.1
-
Sack %
16.4%
10.3%
-
Pass Plays
27.4
35.4
-
Net Pass Yards
189.6
172.8
-
YPPP
6.9
4.9
Total
-
Total Plays
61.5
66.5
-
Total Yards
372.0
307.8
-
YPPL
6.0
4.6
TO
-
Int
0.6
0.9
-
Int %
2.8%
2.8%
-
Fumbles
0.4
0.4
-
Turnovers
1.0
1.3
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/03/23 @ Florida St. |
24-45 |
-2.5
L
|
23/33 |
139/139 |
6.0/4.2 |
1/0 |
22/24 |
37/32 |
321/359 |
1/1 |
4/0 |
7.8/11.2 |
460/498 |
7.2/7.7 |
09/09/23 Grambling State |
72-10 |
0.0
W
|
47/27 |
305/186 |
6.5/6.9 |
0/1 |
24/15 |
32/31 |
317/152 |
0/1 |
1/1 |
9.6/4.8 |
622/338 |
7.8/5.7 |
09/16/23 @ Mississippi St. |
41-14 |
-9.5
W
|
37/16 |
176/112 |
4.8/7.0 |
0/0 |
32/12 |
37/29 |
372/82 |
0/0 |
2/5 |
9.5/2.4 |
548/194 |
7.2/3.9 |
09/23/23 Arkansas |
34-31 |
-17.5
L
|
27/33 |
198/164 |
7.3/5.0 |
0/0 |
20/21 |
29/31 |
311/262 |
1/2 |
2/4 |
10.0/7.5 |
509/426 |
8.8/6.3 |
09/30/23 @ Mississippi |
49-55 |
-3.0
L
|
33/49 |
242/317 |
7.3/6.5 |
1/0 |
27/26 |
36/39 |
395/389 |
0/0 |
4/0 |
9.9/10.0 |
637/706 |
8.7/8.0 |
10/07/23 @ Missouri |
42-39 |
-6.0
L
|
40/19 |
286/151 |
7.2/7.9 |
0/0 |
16/29 |
23/46 |
274/375 |
0/2 |
2/2 |
11.0/7.8 |
560/526 |
8.6/7.9 |
10/14/23 Auburn |
48-18 |
-11.0
W
|
36/31 |
243/153 |
6.8/4.9 |
0/0 |
20/15 |
27/27 |
321/145 |
1/0 |
2/2 |
11.1/5.0 |
564/298 |
8.7/5.0 |
10/21/23 Army |
62-0 |
-32.5
W
|
32/42 |
166/158 |
5.2/3.8 |
0/1 |
18/6 |
27/15 |
363/35 |
0/3 |
1/1 |
13.0/2.2 |
529/193 |
8.8/3.3 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/02/23 Middle Tenn St |
56-7 |
-39.0
W
|
38/23 |
221/103 |
5.8/4.5 |
0/1 |
17/24 |
24/35 |
210/110 |
0/1 |
2/3 |
8.1/2.9 |
431/213 |
6.7/3.5 |
09/09/23 Texas |
24-34 |
-7.0
L
|
30/34 |
138/111 |
4.6/3.3 |
0/0 |
14/24 |
27/38 |
224/349 |
2/0 |
5/0 |
7.0/9.2 |
362/460 |
5.8/6.4 |
09/16/23 @ South Florida |
17-3 |
-32.0
L
|
37/41 |
235/198 |
6.4/4.8 |
1/1 |
10/14 |
23/28 |
75/64 |
0/1 |
5/5 |
2.7/1.9 |
310/262 |
4.8/3.5 |
09/23/23 Mississippi |
24-10 |
-7.0
W
|
37/24 |
182/88 |
4.9/3.7 |
0/0 |
17/21 |
21/36 |
191/213 |
1/1 |
5/5 |
7.3/5.2 |
373/301 |
5.9/4.6 |
09/30/23 @ Mississippi St. |
40-17 |
-15.0
W
|
38/30 |
226/178 |
5.9/5.9 |
0/0 |
11/15 |
13/27 |
150/85 |
0/3 |
4/4 |
8.8/2.7 |
376/263 |
6.8/4.3 |
10/07/23 @ Texas A&M |
26-20 |
-2.0
W
|
20/30 |
66/98 |
3.3/3.3 |
1/0 |
21/14 |
33/25 |
279/208 |
1/1 |
6/5 |
7.2/6.9 |
345/306 |
5.8/5.1 |
10/14/23 Arkansas |
24-21 |
-19.5
L
|
35/32 |
217/138 |
6.2/4.3 |
0/0 |
10/14 |
21/24 |
204/112 |
0/0 |
5/4 |
7.8/4.0 |
421/250 |
6.9/4.2 |
10/21/23 Tennessee |
34-20 |
-9.0
W
|
38/35 |
174/166 |
4.6/4.7 |
1/1 |
14/28 |
21/41 |
184/241 |
1/0 |
4/3 |
7.4/5.5 |
358/407 |
5.7/5.2 |