LSU @

Alabama

Sat, Nov 4
CBS
4:45 PM Pacific
Rotation: 383
Odds: Alabama -3, Total: 61.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Over (61.5) – ALABAMA (-3)  37   Louisiana State  32

LSU has the best offense in the nation – and it’s not even close. The Tigers have averaged 8.3 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average offense and they’ve averaged 7.2 yards per play or more in every game this season – which includes games against good defensive teams Florida State, Mississippi, and Missouri.

Alabama has the best defense that the Tigers have faced. The Crimson Tide are capable of limiting a good offensive team, but Nick Saban’s defenses have always had trouble, relatively, against teams with a running quarterback and Jayden Daniels is an elite runner (612 run yards at 8.4 yards per run, not including sacks).

Alabama should be able to outscore the Tigers, as Jalen Milroe has averaged 7.0 yards per pass play or more in every game he’s played and LSU has allowed 7.3 yards per pass play this season. Bama is also projected to run for over 200 yards at 6.0 yards per rushing play.

The forecast is for no wind or rain, which adds about 3 points, and my math model had this game going over before adjusting for the perfect conditions for scoring. I lean over 63 points or less.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • LSU
  • Alabama
LSU
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 32.6 31.9
  • Run Yards 207.1 170.6
  • YPRP 6.4 5.4




Pass





  • Pass Comp 22.1 19.0
  • Pass Att 30.9 31.3
  • Comp % 71.7% 60.7%
  • Pass Yards 348.3 247.3
  • Sacks 2.4 2.0
  • Sack Yards 11.6 12.0
  • Sack % 7.3% 6.0%
  • Pass Plays 33.3 33.3
  • Net Pass Yards 336.7 235.3
  • YPPP 10.1 7.1

Total

  • Total Plays 65.9 65.2
  • Total Yards 543.9 405.9
  • YPPL 8.3 6.2

TO


  • Int 0.4 1.1
  • Int % 1.4% 3.6%
  • Fumbles 0.3 0.1
  • Turnovers 0.7 1.3
 
  • Points 46.5 26.5
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