Game Analysis

Washington (+2.5)  27   Louisville  26

Washington was better this season than their 6-6 record, as the Huskies lost two games that they should have easily won based on the stats (Washington State and Rutgers) and averaged 6.0 yards per play while allowing just 5.1 yppl to a schedule of teams that was a combined 0.6 yppl better than average. My math model would have favored Louisville by just 4.6 points on a neutral field at the end of the regular season but the adjustments for opt-outs, transfers and injuries favor the Huskies in this game.

Louisville’s offense averaged 34.3 points and 6.7 yards per play against FBS teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team, but the Cardinals will be without starting QB Tyler Shough and two of their top 3 wide receivers. The missing receivers (Brooks, Huggins-Bruce) combined for 1160 yards on 111 targets against FBS teams (10.5 YPT) and the available wide receivers in this game combined for 1025 yards on 105 targets (9.8 YPT), which equates to 0.24 yppp and 0.7 points. Of course, the big loss is Shough, who rated at 1.4 yards per pass play better than average and threw just 6 interceptions. Veteran Harrison Bailey, who started a few games for NC State a few years ago, is the backup and I’ll assume he plays at the same level as Jack Plummer did last season in coach Brohm’s system, which is 0.7 yppp better than average.

On a positive note, the Cardinals should be able to run the ball well, as back Isaac Brown and Duke Watson combined for 1379 yards at 7.1 ypr (vs FBS team) and won’t be sharing runs with departed backs Keyjuan Brown and Donald Chaney (356 yards at 4.0 ypr). I project more yards per run than yards per pass play and I suspect Brohm will use his two stud running backs to lead the offense. In all, I don’t think that Louisville’s offense will be hurt that much if they commit to the run, as Washington was only 0.2 yprp better than average defending the run while being 1.6 yppp better than average against the pass.

Washington’s defense was 1.0 yppl better than average overall this season and that unit is basically intact, as just a handful of players that were injured early in the season are listed as out for this game. I will adjust 0.2 yppp for injuries to pass rushers Durfee and Davis, who combined for 5.5 sacks early in the season and are among the players that won’t play.

Washington’s offense averaged only 22.5 points, but the Huskies averaged close to 400 yards of offense per game at 6.0 yppl and should have scored more than they did given that they also averaged less than one turnover per game. Coach Fisch decided to turn to Demond Williams to quarterback his offense in the season finale against Oregon and he’s sticking with the youngster over veteran Will Rogers to start this game. Williams played at least one series in every game, and he completed 77% of his 73 passes with zero interceptions. However, he also took 16 sacks, including 10 against Oregon. Williams’ compensated passing metrics were not as good as Rogers, but he adds to the run game and was the team’s second leading rusher. Overall, I rate Williams as about half a point worse than Rogers after also taking into account that Williams rarely throws into coverage (just 4 of his 73 passes were defended against with zero intercepted).

Louisville’s defense was 0.6 yppl better than average this season (5.6 yppl allowed to FBS teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average team) but the Cardinals will be without impact starters DE Gillotte and CB Riley, who both opted out to prepare for the NFL draft process. Gillotte led the team in sacks and total tackles for loss while Riley is a shutdown cornerback that had 15 passes defended in just 10 games. Rotational DT Dawson is also out, and he was #2 on the team in sacks and #3 in total TFLs. The Cardinals’ pass defense was 0.3 yards per pass play better than average this season, but they gave up 9.0 yppp in two FBS games without Riley to teams (ND and SMU) that would combine to average 7.6 yppp against an average defense. The losses to Louisville’s defense are worth 0.5 yppl and 3.7 points.

After all of the adjustments, the math favors Louisville by 1.8 points with 53.2 total points – even after lowering the total number of plays by 7 to account for the slower paced offense with Williams at quarterback for Washington (partially because more of his pass plays end in sacks and fewer pass plays end with incomplete passes). Washington applies to a 71-28-2 ATS bowl situation that plays on low scoring teams while Louisville applies to a negative 30-95-2 ATS bowl situation that applies to teams that averaged 34 or more points per game. It should also be noted that ACC teams are 0-10 ATS so far with the only straight up win being Syracuse (as an 18.5-point favorite) against a depleted Washington State team. Washington would be a Lean at +3 or more.