Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – SYRACUSE (+14.5/+17) 28   Louisville 38

I posted this when the line was +14.5. The line is now +17 and I have upgraded Syracuse to a Strong Opinion.

Louisville beat up on a horrible Charlotte team as expected, winning 70-14 as a 38 ½ point favorite. Cardinals’ quarterback Lamar Jackson picked up where he left off in last year’s bowl win over Texas A&M, as he ran and passed his way into Heisman Trophy candidacy. I rated Louisville higher than most heading into this season but last week’s impressive performance is factored into the line on this game and I think the value lies with Syracuse.

The Orange are an experienced team (8 starters on each side of the ball) with an upgrade at head coach in Dino Babers, who spent the last two seasons as the head coach at Bowling Green. Babers’ offensive system seems to suit the Orange well, as quarterback Eric Dungey completed 34 of 40 passes in last week’s 33-7 win over Colgate. That performance was actually more dominating than the score indicates, as Syracuse had 558 total yards to just 147 total yards for Colgate. Colgate is about 25 points worse than an average FBS team, although they have the same core players that made it to the FCS quarterfinals last season, but Syracuse outplayed them by over 40 points based on the statistics.

Both of these teams were impressive last weekend and my ratings favor Louisville by 13 ½ points – so the line is about right. The reason for liking Syracuse here is a 130-61-1 ATS revenge situation and a 34-6 ATS big home underdog momentum situation that applies at +14 points or more. I don’t have enough value to make this a Best Bet but I certainly lean with the Orange based on the technical indicators.