Game Analysis

Louisville (-9 ½)  38   NORTH CAROLINA  24

North Carolina’s offense appears to be in sharp decline this season after being blessed with good quarterbacks in recent years (Marquise Williams followed by Mitch Trubisky), as LSU transfer Brandon Harris and redshirt freshman Chazz Surratt combined for just 4.6 yards per pass play in their upset loss to Cal. Surratt was the better of the two quarterbacks (5.5 yppp) and he’ll probably get most of the snaps this week, but it’s pretty clear the pass game is suspect and the rushing attack (5.3 yards per rushing play) was nothing special as the Heels break in some new running backs after losing Hood and Logan.

North Carolina’s defense also got a wakeup call from the Bears, who amassed 478 yards at 6.5 yards per play but there was some big-play variance in those numbers and I still rate the Tarheels’ defense at 0.4 yards per play better than average. However, that’s not good enough to contain a very good Louisville attack led by Heisman winner Lamar Jackson, who reportedly is a better passer this season and showed that improvement last week in a deceiving 35-28 win at Purdue. Jackson completed 30 of 46 passes for 379 yards without being sacked (he was sacked a lot last year, so he’s certainly getting the ball out quicker) and he added 111 yards on the ground. That 7-point win is deceiving because Louisville outgained Purdue by 187 yards but had 3 scoring opportunities derailed by fumbles.

The Cardinals also have a good defense and my ratings favor them by 14 points in this game. North Carolina’s upset loss is a bad omen as teams that won 7 or more games the previous season and lost their opener as a favorite of 3 points or more are just 46-75 ATS in game 2, including 15-29 ATS if facing a team that is coming off a spread loss. I like the Cardinals.