Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Louisville (+3)  23   FLORIDA STATE  21

Florida State was obviously not going to be nearly as good offensively without Heisman Trophy candidate Jordan Travis, who was 1.8 yards per pass play better than average throwing the ball (7.8 yppp against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB) and added a running element that made the running backs better because defenses had to worry about Travis keeping the ball.

Backup Tate Rodemaker wasn’t good against bad FCS team North Alabama after Travis got hurt (8.4 yppp against a defense that would allow 9.7 yppp on the road to an average FBS quarterback), but I thought he’d be better with a week of work with the #1 offense heading into the Florida game. That was not the case, as Rodemaker managed just 108 yards on 28 pass plays against a bad Florida pass defense that had been 0.7 yppp worse than average for the season heading into that game. The running backs also struggled (4.9 ypr) against a worse than average Florida run defense that would allow 5.6 ypr to an average running back. I had assumed the Rodemaker would play at the level of an average FBS quarterback but he was far worse. I’m not going to assume he’ll play as poorly as he has since taking over at quarterback the last two weeks but it appears as if Rodemaker is worse than average in the pass game and that the rushing attack is suffering without Travis too (although I will still rate the run game at 0.4 yprp better than average).

Louisville has a good run defense (4.6 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yprp against an average defense) so Rodemaker will have to play at a better than average level against a solid Cardinals’ pass defense (0.3 yppp better than average) if the Seminoles hope to have decent offensive production.

Florida State still has a very good defense that I rate at 1.2 yppl better than average, but keep in mind that they were able to win by 9 at Florida last week in part because the Gators were also playing an inexperienced quarterback that certainly didn’t look ready to play at this level (Brown managed just 45 yards on 22 pass plays). Louisville’s veteran QB Jack Plummer has seen it all and will know where to go with the football when FSU brings the pressure. Plummer has averaged 7.7 yppp this season, against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback, but I rate the Louisville pass attack at 1.5 yppp better than average (nearly as good as Travis) after adjusting for the big play outliers early in the season. The Cardinals also have two good running backs in Jawhar Jordan and Isaac Guerendo, who have combined for 1715 yards at 6.3 ypr (6.0 ypr against FBS teams).

I project 349 yards at 5.5 yppl for Louisville in this game, which should be enough to win the game unless Rodemaker can play at a significantly better than average level (he’d have to be 0.9 yppp better than an average FBS quarterback to justify FSU being favored by 3 points).

Louisville is a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more to -115 odds.