Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – CHARLOTTE (+3) 33 Louisiana Tech 30
My only Best Bet loss last week was on Louisiana Tech in a game in which their star quarterback was a surprise scratch. My math model would have leaned with UTSA minus the points in that game if I had known that ahead of time, as the Bulldogs’ third-string quarterback Landry Lyddy is a huge drop off from starter Parker McNeil, who has averaged 7.9 yards per pass play this season. Lyddy has played in 4 games, with 2 starts, and he’s averaged only 5.6 yppp despite facing teams that would combine to allow 7.4 yppp to an average quarterback. There is about a 10 point difference between McNeil and Lyddy and that difference is not fully factored into the line.
Lyddy should put up good numbers against a horrible Charlotte defense (7.7 yppp projected) but Charlotte’s star QB Chris Reynolds is projected to average 7.5 yppp against Louisiana Tech’s porous pass defense and the 49ers should average around 6 yards per run against a Bulldogs’ defensive front that’s allowed 6.2 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that would average only 4.6 yprp against an average defense).
Louisiana Tech is 0-3 ATS in the games in which McNeil has not started and the Bulldogs should be an underdog in this game without him. Charlotte is a Strong Opinion at +3 -115 or better.
Rush
-
Run Plays
29.6
39.0
-
Run Yards
134.3
243.9
-
YPRP
4.5
6.3
Pass
-
Pass Comp
20.6
19.1
-
Pass Att
35.9
34.1
-
Comp %
57.4%
56.0%
-
Pass Yards
271.1
232.0
-
Sacks
2.7
1.1
-
Sack Yards
16.0
7.9
-
Sack %
7.0%
3.1%
-
Pass Plays
38.6
35.2
-
Net Pass Yards
255.1
224.1
-
YPPP
6.6
6.4
Total
-
Total Plays
68.2
74.2
-
Total Yards
389.4
468.0
-
YPPL
5.7
6.3
TO
-
Int
1.6
1.0
-
Int %
4.5%
2.9%
-
Fumbles
0.5
1.1
-
Turnovers
2.1
2.1
Rush
-
Run Plays
27.8
37.2
-
Run Yards
129.7
221.2
-
YPRP
4.7
5.9
Pass
-
Pass Comp
21.9
19.7
-
Pass Att
36.5
28.4
-
Comp %
60.1%
69.6%
-
Pass Yards
270.5
280.8
-
Sacks
2.7
1.4
-
Sack Yards
19.6
7.2
-
Sack %
7.0%
4.6%
-
Pass Plays
39.2
29.7
-
Net Pass Yards
250.8
273.6
-
YPPP
6.4
9.2
Total
-
Total Plays
67.0
66.9
-
Total Yards
380.5
494.8
-
YPPL
5.7
7.4
TO
-
Int
1.3
0.6
-
Int %
3.5%
1.9%
-
Fumbles
0.6
0.4
-
Turnovers
1.9
0.9
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2022 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/01/22 @ Missouri |
24-52 |
+20.5
L
|
18/51 |
38/328 |
2.1/6.4 |
0/1 |
26/19 |
45/29 |
270/217 |
3/1 |
4/0 |
5.5/7.5 |
308/545 |
4.6/6.8 |
| 09/10/22 Stephen F. Austin |
52-17 |
0.0
W
|
39/35 |
305/133 |
7.8/3.8 |
0/2 |
14/11 |
28/31 |
212/126 |
1/1 |
1/2 |
7.3/3.8 |
517/259 |
7.6/3.8 |
| 09/17/22 @ Clemson |
20-48 |
+33.5
W
|
19/38 |
22/289 |
1.2/7.6 |
1/1 |
23/20 |
43/35 |
310/254 |
3/0 |
1/1 |
7.0/7.1 |
332/543 |
5.3/7.3 |
| 09/24/22 @ South Alabama |
14-38 |
+13.5
L
|
25/34 |
92/177 |
3.7/5.2 |
1/0 |
19/17 |
34/25 |
220/212 |
4/1 |
4/1 |
5.8/8.2 |
312/389 |
5.0/6.5 |
| 10/08/22 UTEP |
41-31 |
-2.5
W
|
29/37 |
132/192 |
4.6/5.2 |
2/1 |
18/23 |
27/51 |
253/305 |
0/3 |
2/1 |
8.7/5.9 |
385/497 |
6.6/5.6 |
| 10/15/22 @ North Texas |
27-47 |
+6.5
L
|
32/47 |
119/480 |
3.7/10.2 |
0/0 |
26/11 |
37/21 |
392/196 |
0/1 |
6/0 |
9.1/9.3 |
511/676 |
6.8/9.9 |
| 10/22/22 Rice |
41-42 |
+2.5
W
|
35/43 |
166/287 |
4.7/6.7 |
0/3 |
20/16 |
37/27 |
207/200 |
1/0 |
4/1 |
5.0/7.1 |
373/487 |
4.9/6.9 |
| 10/28/22 @ FIU |
34-42 |
-6.5
L
|
38/24 |
194/64 |
5.1/2.7 |
0/0 |
28/31 |
40/48 |
248/315 |
0/0 |
2/1 |
5.9/6.4 |
442/379 |
5.5/5.2 |
| 11/05/22 Middle Tenn St |
40-24 |
+2.5
W
|
31/40 |
156/231 |
5.0/5.8 |
0/2 |
17/23 |
37/44 |
299/190 |
1/3 |
2/4 |
7.7/4.0 |
455/421 |
6.5/4.8 |
| 11/12/22 @ UTSA |
7-51 |
+18.0
L
|
30/41 |
119/258 |
4.0/6.3 |
1/1 |
15/20 |
31/30 |
140/226 |
3/0 |
1/0 |
4.4/7.5 |
259/484 |
4.2/6.8 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2022 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/27/22 @ Florida Atl. |
13-43 |
+7.5
L
|
18/48 |
85/219 |
4.7/4.6 |
0/0 |
16/17 |
28/25 |
196/264 |
1/0 |
4/0 |
6.1/10.6 |
281/483 |
5.6/6.6 |
| 09/02/22 William & Mary |
24-41 |
0.0
L
|
32/43 |
122/309 |
3.8/7.2 |
0/0 |
17/13 |
31/19 |
206/255 |
0/0 |
4/1 |
5.9/12.8 |
328/564 |
4.9/9.0 |
| 09/10/22 Maryland |
21-56 |
+26.5
L
|
27/26 |
106/200 |
3.9/7.7 |
0/0 |
28/30 |
52/34 |
286/434 |
0/1 |
1/1 |
5.4/12.4 |
392/634 |
4.9/10.4 |
| 09/17/22 @ Georgia St. |
42-41 |
+19.5
W
|
22/50 |
111/274 |
5.0/5.5 |
0/1 |
31/22 |
43/34 |
390/331 |
1/1 |
1/2 |
8.9/9.2 |
501/605 |
7.6/7.0 |
| 09/24/22 @ South Carolina |
20-56 |
+22.5
L
|
28/39 |
108/281 |
3.9/7.2 |
0/1 |
20/19 |
35/26 |
178/208 |
3/0 |
1/1 |
4.9/7.7 |
286/489 |
4.5/7.4 |
| 10/01/22 UTEP |
35-41 |
+3.0
L
|
22/41 |
136/261 |
6.2/6.4 |
2/1 |
22/10 |
39/14 |
299/169 |
1/0 |
5/1 |
6.8/11.3 |
435/430 |
6.6/7.7 |
| 10/15/22 @ UAB |
20-34 |
+23.5
W
|
23/51 |
121/299 |
5.3/5.9 |
1/0 |
15/15 |
26/23 |
198/225 |
2/1 |
1/1 |
7.3/9.4 |
319/524 |
6.4/7.0 |
| 10/22/22 FIU |
15-34 |
-13.5
L
|
23/40 |
94/151 |
4.1/3.8 |
2/0 |
25/26 |
43/34 |
242/306 |
3/1 |
5/0 |
5.0/9.0 |
336/457 |
4.7/6.2 |
| 10/29/22 @ Rice |
56-23 |
+16.5
W
|
40/26 |
261/170 |
6.5/6.5 |
0/0 |
17/18 |
20/33 |
253/201 |
0/1 |
3/3 |
11.0/5.6 |
514/371 |
8.2/6.0 |
| 11/05/22 Western Kentucky |
7-59 |
+15.0
L
|
43/16 |
175/137 |
4.1/8.6 |
1/0 |
22/25 |
35/41 |
238/434 |
2/0 |
4/1 |
6.1/10.3 |
413/571 |
5.0/9.8 |
| 11/12/22 @ Middle Tenn St |
14-24 |
+10.0
T
|
28/29 |
108/132 |
3.9/4.6 |
1/1 |
28/22 |
49/29 |
273/183 |
1/1 |
1/4 |
5.5/5.5 |
381/315 |
4.9/5.1 |
Louisiana Tech
@ 
Charlotte