Game Analysis

Oregon (-17)  43   Liberty  25

Oregon’s offense was the second-best unit in the nation (behind LSU) and the Ducks averaged 41.1 points on over 500 total yards per game at 7.8 yards per play (with QB Nix in the game) against FBS opponents that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average offense. The unit will be weakened by two of their best players opting out – Remington Award (top center) winner C Jackson Powers-Johnson and top WR Troy Franklin, who caught passes for 1383 yards at 12.0 yards per target. The rest of the receivers combined to average 9.8 YPT but Franklin is worth a couple of points and Powers-Johnson will be hard to replace (I value him at 1.4 points, double the value of a normal offensive line starter). Oregon would still have the nation’s second-best offense without those two players and QB Bo Nix and NFL-bound RB Bucky Irving have stated that they will play in this game.

Liberty’s defense was 0.2 yards per play worse than average this season, rating average against the run and 0.4 yards per pass play worse than average defending the pass, which doesn’t bode well in this game against one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the nation operating a pass-heavy offense. Liberty will be without starting CB Preston Hodge and DT Kendy Charles, who both transferred. Hodge has 10 passes defended and will be missed, and the run defense was better in the 7 games that Charles played this season. I’ll assume #4 tackler Jerome Jolly will play after he missed the CUSA championship game with an injury (he’s on the depth chart). I rate the Flames defense at 0.5 yppl worse than average without Hodge and Charles. I project 540 yards at 8.6 yppl for the Ducks in this game, which includes the boost for playing in a covered stadium.

Liberty’s offense played at an elite level this season, averaging 40.8 points per game and 7.6 yards per play (with starters in) against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack. Oregon’s defense was 1.3 yppl better than average this season, allowing 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.4 yppl against an average defense and they would have been better than that if opponents didn’t run 62% pass-plays against them. The Ducks will be weakened by the absence of NFL-bound CB Khyree Jackson (and a backup CB that transferred, which will hurt depth) but I still rate that unit at 1.1 yppl better than average (assuming there are no late opt outs that haven’t been announced as of Saturday night). I project 416 yards at 6.4 yppl for Liberty.

The math favors Oregon by 17.6 points with 68.2 total points.