Game Analysis

Lean – LOUISIANA TECH (+1)  25   Liberty  21

Louisiana Tech has two quarterbacks, Blake Baker and Evan Bullock, out for the year and they’ll turn back to Trey Kukuk, who began the season as the starter. Kukuk has completed 68% of his 53 passes, but he settles for mostly short passes. Kukuk has the same compensated yards per pass play as the other two quarterbacks combined so I didn’t adjust much for the quarterback change (about 1 point). Liberty’s defense has been 0.6 yards per play worse than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average only 5.0 yppl against an average defense) and I project the Bulldogs with 332 yards at 5.3 yppl in this game.

Liberty is at a disadvantage when they have the ball, as the Flames have been 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team) while Louisiana Tech’s defense has allowed just 19.8 points per game and 5.2 yppl (to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defense). I project 355 yards at 5.2 yppl for the Flames in this game.

Louisiana Tech has a significant advantage in special teams and they rank 38th in the nation in net starting field position differential while Liberty ranks #132 in that metric.

I nearly made Louisiana Tech a Strong Opinion but I will settle on a Lean on the Bulldogs.