Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – SOUTH CAROLINA (+1)  30   Kentucky  25

Kentucky has going 1-4 straight up and 1-4 ATS in their last 4 games and they appear to still be overrated. The Wildcats rate at just 0.4 yards per play better than average offensively and 0.5 yppl better than average defensively, which is about the same overall as a South Carolina team that is 0.6 yppl better than average on offense and 0.2 yppl better than average on defense.

Kentucky is projected to be about average offensively in this game, with 5.3 yards per rushing play, 6.3 yards per pass play and 5.9 yards per play. South Carolina, meanwyile, is projected to average 6.2 yppl while running 4 more plays from scrimmage than the ‘Cats and the Gamecocks have the biggest matchup advantage for either team. Quarterback Spencer Rattler has completed 71% of his passes and has been 1.0 yppp better than average. South Carolina won’t be able to run the ball against a good Kentucky defensive front but the Gamecocks prefer to throw the ball and Rattler is projected to average 7.6 yppp against a mediocre Kentucky pass defense that’s allowed 66% completions and 6.2 yards per pass play (against quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.2 yppp against an average defense). While Kentucky is expected to be mediocre running and passing, the Gamecocks’ pass-oriented offense (60% pass plays) will likely throw the ball even more than normal to take advantage of the favorable matchup and avoid Kentucky’s good run defense. Rattler has also been relatively better against mediocre and bad pass defenses, as he struggled against the good pass defenses of Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Missouri (4.1 yppp and 0.8 yppp worse than average after adjusting for opposing pass defenses) while averaging 8.7 yppp and rating at 2.0 yppp better than average against the other 5 FBS teams he’s faced (UNC, Miss State, Florida, Jacksonville State, and Vandy). Rattler could exceed the math model projection given that he plays relatively better against worse pass defenses and Kentucky’s pass defense is worse than the average pass defense he’s faced this season.

Kentucky has outplayed their opponents by just 2.1 points per game from the line of scrimmage this season (they’ve been outgained but average more yards per play) but they’ve managed to outscore their opponents by 4.1 points per game because they’ve scored 4 touchdowns on interception and fumble returns while their opponents have zero defensive scores. That’s nothing more than luck and has contributed to the Wildcats being overrated.

The Gamecocks are the slightly better overall team (better special teams), are at home, and I like the matchup. South Carolina is a Strong Opinion at -1 or better.