Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – GEORGIA (-21.5)  35   Kentucky  7

Georgia was my #1 rated team heading into the season (projected at 29 points better than an average FBS team) and so far the Bulldogs have been 33 points better than average despite playing their backup quarterback more than their starter J.T. Daniels.

I expect Daniels to be out again, but backup Stetson Bennett has completed 69% of his passes and averaged 11.7 yards on his 63 pass plays. Georgia still depends on the run (206 rushing yards per game) but the Bulldogs are projected at a modest 4.9 yards per rushing play against a good Kentucky run defense that has been 0.7 yards per rushing play better than average. The Wildcats have a good pass defense (0.7 yppp better than average) but Bennett averaged 8.9 yppp the last two weeks against Arkansas and Auburn defenses that are about the same defending the pass at Kentucky is. Georgia has averaged 40 points per game against a schedule of teams that collectively are 0.4 yppl better than average defensively and the Bulldogs are projected to score 36 points in this game against a Kentucky defense that is a bit better than what Georgia has faced on average.

The big advantage in this game is an historically good Georgia defense against a Kentucky offense that can move the ball (6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team) but has a quarterback in Will Levis that takes a lot of chances and has been interception prone because of that trait. Levis has thrown 6 interceptions on just 135 pass attempts (4.4%) and his passes defended against would project a still high 3.3% interception rate. Kentucky is a very good running team, averaging 226 yards at 6.4 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.3 yprp) but Georgia has shut down good running teams Clemson, Arkansas, and Auburn, who combined for just 73 rushing yards per game at 3.3 yprp against the Bulldogs’ defensive front. Georgia has only yielded 3.1 yprp for the season and Kentucky is projected to average only 3.9 yprp in this game. That will put the onus on Levis, who is just 0.1 yppp better than an average FBS quarterback, to complete passes in breezy conditions (14 mph winds expected) without one of his two good wide receivers, Josh Ali. Ali has averaged 10.3 yards per target and the Kentucky wide receivers averaged only 5.5 yards per target without Ali last week. Georgia has a dominating pass defense that’s allowed just 3.2 yppp (excluding garbage time with their backups in) and is 2.9 yppp better than average (best in the nation by 0.8 yppp). Georgia also has averaged 1.3 interceptions per game and Levis could throw multiple picks in this game (although the math model projects just 1.2). Levis has faced only two better than average pass defenses this season (South Carolina and Florida) and he averaged only 4.3 yppp in those two games and is projected to average only 3.2 yppp in this game.

Georgia has only allowed an average of 3.2 points per game with their starters in the game and 5.5 points per game overall (they’ve allowed 14 points in 6 games with their backups in) on 204 total yards per game (that includes garbage time). Kentucky is projected to gain just 188 total yards and Georgia’s average lead when they pull their defensive starters is 35 points – so it’s likely that Kentucky will have to face the Bulldogs’ starters the entire game. With that being the case, I don’t see the Wildcats scoring more than 7 points. Only Clemson’s dominating defense has held Georgia below 34 points and the Bulldogs averaged 37 points in 3 games against good SEC defenses South Carolina, Arkansas, and Auburn. Kentucky’s defense is a bit better than those 3 teams, but Georgia should score at least 30 points, which should be enough to cover the number. Georgia is a Strong opinion at -22.5 or less and I’d play Georgia as a 1-Star Best Bet if the line drops to -21 points or less.