Game Analysis
ALABAMA (-35 ½) 48 Kentucky 13
Kentucky has a very strong rushing attack (221 yards at 6.2 yards per rushing play) but Alabama’s run defense is even better and Kentucky would need to continue hitting on big pass plays to stay competitive in this game. The Wildcats have averaged 17.0 yards per completion so far this season, but that is unsustainable and Alabama’s pass rush won’t give Kentucky quarterback Stephen Johnson enough time to look downfield.
On the other side of the ball the Crimson Tide attack (1.2 yards per play better than average) should move the ball at well against a porous Kentucky defense that’s been 0.7 yppl worse than average (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team). The Bama offense would take a little bit of a hit if leading rusher Damien Harris did not play on his injured ankle but there is plenty of depth at the running back position in Tuscaloosa. My math model favors Alabama by 35 points so I have no opinion on this game.
Rush
-
Run Plays
35.0
44.0
-
Run Yards
173.6
200.6
-
YPRP
5.7
4.9
Pass
-
Pass Comp
12.0
18.8
-
Pass Att
20.4
32.6
-
Comp %
58.8%
57.7%
-
Pass Yards
179.8
269.4
-
Sacks
3.4
2.0
-
Sack Yards
24.8
15.6
-
Sack %
14.3%
5.8%
-
Pass Plays
23.8
34.6
-
Net Pass Yards
155.0
253.8
-
YPPP
6.5
7.3
Total
-
Total Plays
58.8
78.6
-
Total Yards
353.4
470.0
-
YPPL
6.0
6.0
TO
-
Int
1.2
1.2
-
Int %
5.9%
3.7%
-
Fumbles
1.6
0.2
-
Turnovers
2.8
1.4
Rush
-
Run Plays
40.2
26.6
-
Run Yards
239.2
73.4
-
YPRP
6.3
3.7
Pass
-
Pass Comp
20.4
16.6
-
Pass Att
32.4
30.8
-
Comp %
63.0%
53.9%
-
Pass Yards
253.2
185.8
-
Sacks
2.0
3.2
-
Sack Yards
13.0
25.8
-
Sack %
5.8%
9.4%
-
Pass Plays
34.4
34.0
-
Net Pass Yards
240.2
160.0
-
YPPP
7.0
4.7
Total
-
Total Plays
74.6
60.6
-
Total Yards
492.4
259.2
-
YPPL
6.6
4.3
TO
-
Int
0.2
0.6
-
Int %
0.6%
1.9%
-
Fumbles
0.8
0.8
-
Turnovers
1.0
1.4
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/03/16 Southern Miss |
35-44 |
-6.5
L
|
21/61 |
129/297 |
6.1/4.9 |
2/0 |
15/18 |
24/28 |
290/227 |
1/3 |
4/3 |
10.4/7.3 |
419/524 |
8.6/5.7 |
09/10/16 @ Florida |
7-45 |
+16.0
L
|
29/50 |
120/244 |
4.1/4.9 |
1/0 |
3/19 |
13/33 |
29/320 |
3/1 |
5/0 |
1.6/9.7 |
149/564 |
3.2/6.8 |
09/17/16 New Mexico St. |
62-42 |
-21.0
L
|
49/44 |
381/227 |
7.8/5.2 |
2/0 |
18/17 |
24/34 |
296/273 |
1/2 |
0/1 |
12.3/7.8 |
677/500 |
9.3/6.3 |
09/24/16 South Carolina |
17-10 |
-2.5
W
|
44/31 |
253/121 |
5.8/3.9 |
1/0 |
11/15 |
19/30 |
99/147 |
1/0 |
4/4 |
4.3/4.3 |
352/268 |
5.3/4.1 |
10/01/16 @ Alabama |
6-34 |
+35.5
W
|
32/34 |
109/192 |
3.4/5.6 |
2/1 |
13/25 |
22/38 |
61/302 |
0/0 |
4/2 |
2.3/7.6 |
170/494 |
2.9/6.7 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/03/16 USC |
52-6 |
-12.0
W
|
42/26 |
263/101 |
6.3/3.9 |
1/0 |
12/18 |
18/37 |
202/110 |
1/1 |
3/3 |
9.6/2.8 |
465/211 |
7.4/3.2 |
09/10/16 Western Kentucky |
38-10 |
-28.0
T
|
36/18 |
158/62 |
4.4/3.4 |
1/0 |
25/19 |
42/38 |
336/166 |
0/2 |
2/4 |
7.6/4.0 |
494/228 |
6.2/3.8 |
09/17/16 @ Mississippi |
48-43 |
-11.0
L
|
45/30 |
355/120 |
7.9/4.0 |
1/1 |
19/26 |
31/41 |
149/405 |
0/0 |
1/2 |
4.7/9.4 |
504/525 |
6.5/7.2 |
09/24/16 Kent State |
48-0 |
-44.0
W
|
44/27 |
293/104 |
6.7/3.9 |
0/1 |
21/7 |
33/16 |
212/58 |
0/0 |
2/3 |
6.1/3.1 |
505/162 |
6.4/3.5 |
10/01/16 Kentucky |
34-6 |
-35.5
L
|
34/32 |
192/109 |
5.6/3.4 |
1/2 |
25/13 |
38/22 |
302/61 |
0/0 |
2/4 |
7.6/2.3 |
494/170 |
6.7/2.9 |