Game Analysis

Wyoming (-3.5)  34   Kent State  29

Wyoming stumbled across the finish line with 6 losses in their final 8 regular season games but a 4-0 start and a week 13 upset win over conference champ Utah State got them to this bowl game. Kent State enters off a 23-41 loss in the MAC Championship Game.

Both teams are below average and are about the same from the line of scrimmage, but Kent State’s horrible special teams should lead to better field position for Wyoming and that figures to make the difference.

Kent State’s offense put up impressive numbers this season, averaging 6.1 yards per rushing play, 7.0 yards per pass play and 485 yards per game at 6.5 yards per play. However, the Golden Flashes faced a schedule of teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average FBS offense so they’re really just a bit better than average and today will be facing a solid Wyoming defense that’s yielded just 22.5 points per game and rates as average on a national scale (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defense). Kent State runs their offense at a fast pace, and I project 435 yard at 5.9 yppl for the Flashes.

Wyoming’s offense is run-oriented, which suits Kent State just fine given that the Flashes are worse defending the pass than defending the run. However, Kent’s run defense is still 0.3 yprp worse than average and 0.2 yprp worse than what Wyoming has faced on average this season. The Cowboys’ attack improved a bit late in the season when Levi Williams took over as the starting quarterback in the final 4 games, as Williams is a more accurate passer (58% to 51%) and a slightly better runner than Sean Chambers. Wyoming’s offense only averaged 23.2 points per game and was 0.3 yppl worse than average for the season but I rate that attack at -0.1 yppl heading into this game and the Cowboys averaged 34.7 points against the 6 worst defensive teams that they faced, and I project 34 points on 450 yards at 6.1 yppl.

As I mentioned, these teams are close to even from the line of scrimmage, but Kent State has horrible special teams that should give the Cowboys a significant field position advantage.