Game Analysis
Lean – Kent State (+27) 12 FRESNO STATE 34
Kent State was about 23.0 points worse than an average team in losses to UCF (6-56) and Arkansas (6-28) before beating up on Central Connecticut State last week (38-10). Fresno, meanwhile, has been 0.7 points worse than average in their 3 games (factoring in facing ASU’s backup quarterbacks last week) and the Bulldogs have struggled offensively (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average offense).
This year’s performance level would favor Fresno by 25 points at home over Kent State and the Bulldogs apply to a 27-69-3 ATS big non-conference home favorite letdown situation based on last week’s 29-0 win at Arizona State. I’ll lean with Kent State at +26 points or more.
Rush
-
Run Plays
31.5
44.0
-
Run Yards
94.5
289.0
-
YPRP
3.0
6.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
11.5
19.0
-
Pass Att
24.5
27.0
-
Comp %
46.9%
70.4%
-
Pass Yards
159.5
235.0
-
Sacks
4.5
1.5
-
Sack Yards
31.0
8.5
-
Sack %
15.5%
5.3%
-
Pass Plays
29.0
28.5
-
Net Pass Yards
128.5
226.5
-
YPPP
4.4
7.9
Total
-
Total Plays
60.5
72.5
-
Total Yards
223.0
515.5
-
YPPL
3.7
7.1
TO
-
Int
1.0
1.0
-
Int %
4.1%
3.7%
-
Fumbles
0.0
0.5
-
Turnovers
1.0
1.5
Rush
-
Run Plays
30.7
29.3
-
Run Yards
141.0
108.3
-
YPRP
4.6
3.7
Pass
-
Pass Comp
29.0
20.3
-
Pass Att
44.3
37.7
-
Comp %
65.4%
54.0%
-
Pass Yards
291.7
225.0
-
Sacks
3.7
2.0
-
Sack Yards
31.3
10.3
-
Sack %
7.6%
5.0%
-
Pass Plays
48.0
39.7
-
Net Pass Yards
260.3
214.7
-
YPPP
5.4
5.4
Total
-
Total Plays
78.7
69.0
-
Total Yards
401.3
323.0
-
YPPL
5.1
4.7
TO
-
Int
0.7
2.0
-
Int %
1.5%
5.3%
-
Fumbles
0.0
1.3
-
Turnovers
0.7
3.3
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
08/31/23 @ UCF |
6-56 |
+37.0
L
|
34/45 |
113/391 |
3.3/8.7 |
0/1 |
12/25 |
32/35 |
133/332 |
1/2 |
2/1 |
3.9/9.2 |
246/723 |
3.6/8.9 |
09/09/23 @ Arkansas |
6-28 |
+38.0
W
|
29/43 |
76/187 |
2.6/4.3 |
0/0 |
11/13 |
17/19 |
124/121 |
1/0 |
7/2 |
5.2/5.8 |
200/308 |
3.8/4.8 |
09/16/23 Central Connecticut State |
38-10 |
0.0
W
|
54/36 |
295/103 |
5.5/2.9 |
0/0 |
12/6 |
16/17 |
172/50 |
1/2 |
0/0 |
10.8/2.9 |
467/153 |
6.7/2.9 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/02/23 @ Purdue |
39-35 |
+3.5
W
|
33/30 |
131/109 |
4.0/3.6 |
0/0 |
32/17 |
45/30 |
359/254 |
1/0 |
2/0 |
7.6/8.5 |
490/363 |
6.1/6.1 |
09/09/23 Eastern Washington |
34-31 |
0.0
W
|
31/36 |
156/145 |
5.0/4.0 |
0/1 |
23/27 |
39/46 |
208/229 |
1/1 |
3/1 |
5.0/4.9 |
364/374 |
5.0/4.5 |
09/16/23 @ Arizona St. |
29-0 |
-3.0
W
|
28/22 |
136/71 |
4.9/3.2 |
0/3 |
32/17 |
49/37 |
214/161 |
0/5 |
6/5 |
3.9/3.8 |
350/232 |
4.2/3.6 |