Game Analysis

Note: Kennesaw State was released on Monday morning when the line was -7. Kennesaw is a 1-Star Best Bet at -9.5/-10.

2-Star Best Bet – **Kennesaw State (-7 -115)  35   NEW MEXICO STATE  18

I’ve been on Kennesaw State a few times during their 5 game spread winning streak and I still see value on the Owls with Amari Odom announced as the starting quarterback this week by coach Mack. Odom started the season as the backup to Dexter Williams II but emerged as the better option pretty quickly. I was surprised that Williams started last week’s game but it was Odom that came in late to get us the spread win against UTEP after Williams struggled for most of the game (62 yards on 23 pass plays).

There really shouldn’t be a question as to which of the two quarterbacks to start, as Odom has completed 70% of his 106 passes for 9.9 yards per attempt and just 1 interception while Williams has completed just 53% of his 112 passes. Odom has been 2.3 yards per pass play better after adjusting for opposing defenses faced (weighted by how many pass plays against each defense, of course) and the Owls are 0.5 yppl better than average offensively with Odom behind center. He should continue to perform well against a New Mexico State defense that has allowed 67% completions and rates at 1.4 yards per pass play worse than average. The Aggies are a bit better than average defending the run, and Kennesaw runs it a bit more than they throw it, but the Aggies best defensive player, DL Ezra Christensen is out again this week. Christensen has 6 of New Mexico State’s 16 sacks and defends the run well (6th on the team in tackles). The Aggies gave up 6.1 yppl and 35 points last week to a below average Western Kentucky offense without their defensive star last week and I project 481 yards at 6.8 yards per play for the Owls with Odom at quarterback.

New Mexico State will have a tough time keeping pace with an inconsistent quarterback (54% completions and 9 interceptions thrown) and one of the worst rushing attacks in the nation (90 yards per game and 1.9 yards per rushing play worse than average). Overall, the Aggies have been 1.6 yppl worse than average offensively (4.8 yppl against teams that would allow 6.4 yppl to an average team) and are projected to gain just 305 yards at 4.6 yppl against a Kennesaw defense that is 0.3 yppl worse than average, which is better than the norm for a CUSA team.

Kennesaw State is a 2-Star Best Bet at -8 or less and 1-Star to -10