Game Analysis

Lean – Kennesaw State (-3)  32   JACKSONVILLE STATE  25

I lost my Best Bet on Kennesaw State -7 over New Mexico State last week (won 24-21) despite the Owls building a 24-0 lead and outgaining New Mexico State 428 yards at 5.9 yards per play to 316 yards at 3.9 yppl, which projects to a 14-point win. I see value on Kennesaw again this week, although not quite enough to make them a Best Bet.

Kennesaw State has been 0.2 yards per play better than average offensively when Amari Odom is in the game at quarterback (65% completions and 9.3 yards per attempt) instead of Dexter Williams (53% completions and just 6.0 ypa) and difference between the two quarterbacks in terms of compensated yards per pass play is 2.1 yppp. Kennesaw State being better with Odom behind center has not been factored into this line.

Jacksonville State is 0.8 yppl worse than average on defense so the Owls should move the ball well. The Gamecocks are also 0.8 yppl worse than average on offense (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 6.4 yppl to an average team) and Kennesaw is just 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively.

Jacksonville State is projected to run about 10 more plays than the Owls will run, but Kennesaw is still better overall from the line of scrimmage and they have much better special teams.

Kennesaw State is a Lean at -3 or less.