Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Kennesaw State (-2.5 -115)  29   FIU  20

After starting out the season with two losses as big underdogs to Wake Forest (lost by 1 as an 18-point dog) and Indiana (lost by 47 as +35.5) the Owls have run off 4 consecutive wins, including two upset wins. I think that win streak is likely to continue tonight, as Kennesaw State is better than FIU on both offense and defense while having a significant advantage in special teams (Kennesaw is #37 in net field position and FIU is #105).

Kennesaw State has been just 0.2 yards per play worse than average offensively with a poor rush attack and a better than average pass game. Quarterback Amari Odom is likely to return after missing the game two weeks ago, but veteran Dexter Williams II, who began the year as a starter hasn’t been significantly worse and averaged 7.5 yards per pass play to lead a 35-7 upset of a defensively solid Louisiana Tech team two weeks ago.

FIU hasn’t stopped any team from having success running the ball, as they’ve been 1.4 yards per rushing play worse than average (5.9 yprp allowed to FBS teams that would combine to average only 4.5 yprp against an average defense). Kennesaw would average 4.5 yprp against an average defense so they should also have success running the ball in this game while the Owls’ pass attack is projected to average between 6.1 and 7.0 yppp, depending on which quarterback plays. Overall, FIU’s defense has been 0.6 yards per play worse than average and Kennesaw has an advantage over that unit regardless of quarterback.

FIU’s offense has been 0.8 yppl worse than average this season (5.2 yppl against FBS teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) and they’ll struggle to move the ball consistently against a solid Owls’ stop unit that’s been just 0.2 yppl worse than average and has allowed 21 or fewer points in every game except versus unbeaten and highly ranked Indiana. Kennesaw has allowed an average of just 13.4 points in their other 5 games, including just 10 points to Wake Forest. FIU is averaging just 15 points against FBS opponents, all but one of which is worse defensively than Kennesaw State.

This game qualifies as a Best Bet based on the math if Odom is at quarterback and is in Strong Opinion range with Williams behind center. I think Odom will be back based on comments from the head coach, but I’ll just make Kennesaw State a Strong Opinion at -3 -110 or better.