Game Analysis

Lean – James Madison (-7)  31   TEXAS STATE  20

Texas State had lost 5 consecutive games to the spread, including straight up losses as favorites of 13.5 points, 7.5 points, and 3 points in their last 3 games. My math model favors defensively stout James Madison (only 15.6 ppg and 4.4 yards per play allowed) by 9.3 points in this game and the weather should favor the Dukes too.

Winds in the high-teens with gusts into the 30 mph range are expected in San Marcos tonight and that’s going to hurt Texas State more given that James Madison likes to run the ball and is projected to be able to run it much better in this game (6.0 yards per rushing play to 3.7 yprp for Texas State). Texas State also applies to a negative 39-93-2 ATS situation that is based on their recent poor play.

Lean on James Madison at -7 or less.