Game Analysis

Note: This game has moved out of range. MTSU is just a Lean at less than +6.

Strong Opinion – MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (+6)  27   Jacksonville State  27

I had Middle Tennessee rating 1.5 points better than Jacksonville State coming into the season. Both teams have been better than I had projected, with Jacksonville State playing 3.8 points better than I had projected and MTSU playing 1.8 points better than I had projected. I certainly don’t see enough difference in these teams to justify the visiting Gamecocks being a 6-point favorite.

These teams have been basically the same offensively, with both at 1.0 yards per play worse than average after adjusting for opposing defenses faced. I do rate Jacksonville State 0.2 yppl better than their season rating, as they’ve improved since benching the horrible Gavin Wimsatt for Caden Creel, who is a better passer and adds a bit more to the rushing attack.

While the Gamecocks are now 0.2 yppl better offensively, the Blue Raiders have been 0.3 yppl better on defense, rating at 0.6 yppl worse than average (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defense), compared to Jacksonville State’s defense being 0.9 yppl worse than average (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl).

Jacksonville State has been better on a compensated point model because MTSU continues to be worse than projected in red zone defense. The Blue Raiders should be allowing 5.02 points per red zone opportunity based on their defensive metrics, but they’ve allowed 5.83 PPRZ this season on 23 opportunities, which equates to a difference of 2.7 points per game. The same defensive coordinator was bad in the red zone last season too and is now at 5.49 PPRZ allowed as the DC. Most of the time, I assume that red zone variance is just random but that might not be the case with the Blue Raiders.

This game easily qualifies as a Best Bet based on the math model but the red zone defense, if real and not random, would make Middle Tennessee a couple of points worse. I think the true line (a combination of the market line and my math model prediction) on this game, taking everything into account, is between 4 and 4.5 points, which makes MTSU a solid 54.0% bet getting 6 points. If the Blue Raiders’ bad redzone defense is random then we would have Best Bet value on this game.

Middle Tennessee State is a Strong Opinion at +6 -115 odds or better.