Game Analysis

Lean – Iowa (+10)  14   WISCONSIN  19

Big underdogs tend to cover in games with low totals and Iowa, even with their backup quarterback, is likely to stay within single digits of an overrated Wisconsin team.

Iowa’s defense is once again among the very best in the nation, allowing just 16.3 points per game and 4.2 yppl (against teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average team). Wisconsin is mediocre offensively (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) and they’re mediocre defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 ypl against an average defense).

Iowa has gone from bad to worse on offense with backup Deacon Hill at quarterback (they rate at -1.2 yppl for the season and are -1.5 yppl with Hill at QB) but the Hawkeyes are once again the best team in the nation in special teams play, which makes a significant difference in low scoring games, which tend to value field position more. Iowa is 10-2 ATS when the total is less than 38 points and my math suggests that Wisconsin should be favored by only 7 points in this game. Throw in a 244-142-14 ATS situation that plays on big dogs with low totals and the Hawkeyes look like the right side.