Game Analysis
Washington State (-2.5) 33 Iowa State 26
Rotation #248 – Friday, 6 pm Pacific
Washington State has been underrated all season (9-2 ATS in FBS games) and the Cougars are eager to atone for their Apple Cup loss to Washington that cost them a chance at the Pac 12 title. That game was played in horrible weather conditions that greatly affected the Washington State pass attack (just 3.6 yards per pass play was 2.0 yppp lower than any other game this season for Gardner Minshew). Conditions will not be an issue in the Alamo Dome and I expect Minshew’s timing on those short passes to be back to normal. Washington State averages 53 pass plays per game and Minshew averaged 7.1 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback) with just 9 interceptions on 613 pass attempts. Iowa State has a good pass defense (0.6 yppp better than average) but the Cyclones are only 0.3 yppp better than the average defense that the Cougars faced and Minshew is projected to average 6.8 yppp with the offense generating 441 yards at 6.0 yards per play.
Iowa State’s offense improved dramatically in week 6 when freshman Brock Purdy took over the reins of the Cylcones’ attack. Purdue completed 66.3% of his passes and averaged 8.6 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average QB) and his compensated passing numbers are still 1.1 yppp better than the team average even though he played in 8 games (that tells you how bad the other two quarterbacks were). Purdy is also the team’s #2 rusher and the rush attack ticked up with him at quarterback. Overall, the Iowa State attack was 0.5 yards per play better than average with Purdy at quarterback and they have a slight advantage over a Washington State defense that’s been 0.4 yppl better than average this season (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.9 yppl to an average team). Iowa State is also projected to average 6.0 yppl but on about 12 fewer plays than Washington State will run.
The math model favors Washington State by 4 points with a total of 59 points and the Cougars apply to a 55-17-2 ATS bowl situation. I’ll lean with Washington State in this game.
Rush
-
Run Plays
32.3
33.5
-
Run Yards
131.3
126.7
-
YPRP
4.6
4.4
Pass
-
Pass Comp
18.1
20.1
-
Pass Att
28.1
32.5
-
Comp %
64.4%
61.8%
-
Pass Yards
233.7
226.9
-
Sacks
2.3
2.7
-
Sack Yards
15.9
21.4
-
Sack %
7.7%
7.6%
-
Pass Plays
30.4
35.2
-
Net Pass Yards
217.8
205.5
-
YPPP
7.2
5.8
Total
-
Total Plays
62.8
68.7
-
Total Yards
365.0
353.6
-
YPPL
5.8
5.1
TO
-
Int
0.6
0.7
-
Int %
2.1%
2.1%
-
Fumbles
0.8
0.6
-
Turnovers
1.3
1.3
Rush
-
Run Plays
20.3
30.6
-
Run Yards
89.4
141.3
-
YPRP
4.7
5.3
Pass
-
Pass Comp
36.9
17.8
-
Pass Att
52.3
30.3
-
Comp %
70.6%
58.5%
-
Pass Yards
382.0
207.2
-
Sacks
0.9
2.9
-
Sack Yards
5.7
20.7
-
Sack %
1.7%
8.8%
-
Pass Plays
53.3
33.3
-
Net Pass Yards
376.3
186.5
-
YPPP
7.1
5.6
Total
-
Total Plays
73.5
63.8
-
Total Yards
471.4
348.5
-
YPPL
6.4
5.5
TO
-
Int
0.8
0.8
-
Int %
1.6%
2.7%
-
Fumbles
0.3
0.8
-
Turnovers
1.2
1.7
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/08/18 @ Iowa |
3-13 |
+3.5
L
|
21/36 |
47/105 |
2.2/2.9 |
1/0 |
19/16 |
31/28 |
136/166 |
0/0 |
4/0 |
3.9/5.9 |
183/271 |
3.3/4.2 |
09/15/18 Oklahoma |
27-37 |
+18.0
W
|
28/37 |
98/182 |
3.5/4.9 |
0/1 |
25/21 |
36/29 |
349/339 |
1/0 |
1/1 |
9.4/11.3 |
447/521 |
6.9/7.8 |
09/22/18 Akron |
26-13 |
-19.0
L
|
34/27 |
137/115 |
4.0/4.3 |
2/0 |
26/12 |
34/28 |
223/129 |
0/1 |
1/4 |
6.4/4.0 |
360/244 |
5.2/4.1 |
09/29/18 @ TCU |
14-17 |
+10.5
W
|
25/44 |
136/148 |
5.4/3.4 |
1/2 |
14/21 |
28/29 |
66/172 |
0/1 |
2/1 |
2.2/5.7 |
202/320 |
3.7/4.3 |
10/06/18 @ Oklahoma St. |
48-42 |
+9.5
W
|
34/34 |
165/178 |
4.9/5.2 |
1/1 |
19/19 |
25/33 |
309/244 |
1/1 |
4/7 |
10.7/6.1 |
474/422 |
7.5/5.7 |
10/13/18 West Virginia |
30-14 |
+6.5
W
|
45/20 |
256/112 |
5.7/5.6 |
0/0 |
18/11 |
25/15 |
254/40 |
1/1 |
0/7 |
10.2/1.8 |
510/152 |
7.3/3.6 |
10/27/18 Texas Tech |
40-31 |
-4.0
W
|
47/22 |
196/55 |
4.2/2.5 |
1/0 |
13/33 |
27/57 |
231/308 |
0/3 |
3/2 |
7.7/5.2 |
427/363 |
5.5/4.5 |
11/03/18 @ Kansas |
27-3 |
-14.5
W
|
35/39 |
147/160 |
4.2/4.1 |
0/1 |
17/19 |
24/42 |
247/155 |
0/0 |
3/1 |
9.1/3.6 |
394/315 |
6.4/3.8 |
11/10/18 Baylor |
28-14 |
-14.5
L
|
29/31 |
135/154 |
4.7/5.0 |
0/0 |
18/29 |
23/48 |
220/351 |
0/0 |
1/1 |
9.2/7.2 |
355/505 |
6.7/6.3 |
11/17/18 @ Texas |
10-24 |
+2.5
L
|
24/41 |
104/219 |
4.3/5.3 |
1/1 |
13/22 |
29/25 |
110/198 |
1/0 |
6/3 |
3.1/7.1 |
214/417 |
3.6/6.0 |
11/24/18 Kansas St. |
42-38 |
-12.0
L
|
29/44 |
188/269 |
6.5/6.1 |
1/1 |
20/18 |
27/27 |
333/160 |
2/0 |
1/3 |
11.9/5.3 |
521/429 |
9.1/5.8 |
12/01/18 Drake |
27-24 |
0.0
W
|
37/27 |
158/80 |
4.3/3.0 |
1/0 |
15/20 |
28/29 |
135/204 |
1/1 |
2/2 |
4.5/6.6 |
293/284 |
4.4/4.9 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/01/18 @ Wyoming |
41-19 |
-2.5
W
|
20/36 |
103/182 |
5.2/5.1 |
1/0 |
38/8 |
57/20 |
320/40 |
1/1 |
0/3 |
5.6/1.7 |
423/222 |
5.5/3.8 |
09/08/18 San Jose St. |
31-0 |
-33.5
L
|
31/18 |
124/46 |
4.0/2.6 |
0/0 |
35/14 |
54/28 |
438/63 |
3/1 |
0/5 |
8.1/1.9 |
562/109 |
6.6/2.1 |
09/15/18 Eastern Washington |
59-24 |
0.0
W
|
13/33 |
53/171 |
4.1/5.2 |
0/1 |
51/14 |
65/36 |
520/208 |
0/3 |
2/2 |
7.8/5.5 |
573/379 |
7.2/5.3 |
09/21/18 @ USC |
36-39 |
+4.5
W
|
23/26 |
92/159 |
4.0/6.1 |
0/0 |
37/17 |
52/26 |
343/224 |
0/0 |
1/2 |
6.5/8.0 |
435/383 |
5.7/7.1 |
09/29/18 Utah |
28-24 |
+1.5
W
|
8/48 |
32/221 |
4.0/4.6 |
0/0 |
31/12 |
56/21 |
426/101 |
1/0 |
2/2 |
7.3/4.4 |
458/322 |
6.9/4.5 |
10/06/18 @ Oregon St. |
56-37 |
-17.0
W
|
21/46 |
117/296 |
5.6/6.4 |
1/1 |
30/18 |
40/26 |
430/180 |
0/0 |
0/4 |
10.8/6.0 |
547/476 |
9.0/6.3 |
10/20/18 Oregon |
34-20 |
-2.0
W
|
20/20 |
94/81 |
4.7/4.1 |
0/0 |
39/25 |
51/44 |
323/254 |
2/0 |
0/3 |
6.3/5.4 |
417/335 |
5.9/5.0 |
10/27/18 @ Stanford |
41-38 |
+3.5
W
|
18/22 |
67/124 |
3.7/5.6 |
0/1 |
40/34 |
50/43 |
432/319 |
0/0 |
1/1 |
8.5/7.3 |
499/443 |
7.2/6.7 |
11/03/18 California |
19-13 |
-9.0
L
|
14/31 |
85/130 |
6.1/4.2 |
1/0 |
35/18 |
51/33 |
328/161 |
1/2 |
1/5 |
6.3/4.2 |
413/291 |
6.3/4.2 |
11/10/18 @ Colorado |
31-7 |
-5.5
W
|
33/13 |
131/95 |
4.0/7.3 |
0/2 |
37/21 |
61/38 |
346/202 |
0/1 |
0/3 |
5.7/4.9 |
477/297 |
5.1/5.5 |
11/17/18 Arizona |
69-28 |
-9.5
W
|
21/33 |
130/167 |
6.2/5.1 |
0/3 |
44/20 |
56/34 |
475/267 |
0/1 |
2/4 |
8.2/7.0 |
605/434 |
7.7/6.1 |
11/23/18 Washington |
15-28 |
-2.5
L
|
21/41 |
113/272 |
5.4/6.6 |
1/2 |
26/12 |
35/15 |
135/219 |
2/1 |
2/1 |
3.6/13.7 |
248/491 |
4.3/8.6 |