Game Analysis

Lean – Over (57.5) – Miami-Florida (-4.5)  35   Iowa State  29 (With Ward and Restrepo in for Miami)

The offense carried Miami to 10 wins this season and it looks like star QB Cam Ward is going to play one more game for the Canes before heading to the NFL. WR Restrepo is another possible opt-out but there’s been no word on that and the fact that Restrepo has accepted an invitation to the Senior Bowl means that he’s not concerned about playing more football. Starting WR Isaiah Horton has left the team, but Horton averaged only 7.6 yards per target, which was much lower than the rest of the team. If the rest of the Hurricanes’ offense plays, then the Hurricanes would be 1.8 yards per play better than average and should move the ball well in this game.

Iowa State’s defense was gutted in the Big 12 Championship game by Arizona State (45 points and 8.7 yppl) but the Cyclones were still 0.3 yppl better than average for the season on the stop side of the ball (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average defense). The Cyclones missed safety Malik Verdon against Kansas (8.1 yppl allowed) and most of that game against ASU and he is expected to miss this game too along with DT Onyedim, who was honorable mention All-Big 12. Those two are worth 1.3 points and the Cyclones look like an average defense without them. ISU’s defense, while not great, does force the opposing quarterback to be patient, as the Cyclones only allowed 52.8% completions and 11.7 yards per completion. They would rather put an extra defender in coverage than pressure the quarterback, which is why they averaged only 1.1 sacks per game. Ward will have time to throw and I think he’s got enough experience to be patient and wait for a receiver to get open before firing.

The Iowa State offense was just 0.4 yppl better than average this season (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and that unit appears to be intact for this game and gets TE Brahmer back from injury (he averaged 10.5 yards on his 17 targets in 8 games).

The Miami defense got a lot of heat from the media but was actually 0.3 yppl better than average. That unit may be without defensive backs Richard (has missed the last 3 games) and Hill (missed the last 2) but they got DE Elijah Alston back from injury in their last game and it appears as if all the vital defensive players are playing – although Miami didn’t release a depth chart.

Miami is clearly the better team and the line is lower than it should be because it’s possible that Ward and/or Restrepo may not play. The math comes out with Miami by 6.4 and a total of 64.4 points (with -1.2 points for weather included). I am going to Lean Over 58 or fewer points and hope that those two do play.