Game Analysis
Note: I released Iowa State to subscribers on Monday morning when the line was +11.5. It is now out of Best Bet range with the line below 10.
1-Star Best Bet – *Iowa State (+11.5) 20 KANSAS STATE 24
Iowa State has shown improvement throughout the season after a bad start (1-2 including a loss at Ohio U.) and even last week’s 16-26 to Texas wasn’t a bad performance (6.3 yppl to 6.2 yppl allowed to the Longhorns). Kansas State, meanwhile, won their game at Kansas last week (31-27) despite facing a 3rd-string freshman walk-on quarterback and getting outplayed 356 yards at 6.1 yppl to 376 yards at 6.6 yppl by the Jayhawks.
Kansas State is a good team, as they’ve been 14.0 points better than average from the line of scrimmage this season (adjusted for opponents faced, including facing backup quarterbacks against Texas and Kansas) with better than average special teams play (+0.5 points per game). However, that’s not good enough to be favored by double-digits over a good ISU team that rates at 0.4 yppl better than average on offense, 0.8 yppl better than average on defense, has been 7.8 points per game better than average overall from the line of scrimmage for the season (+11.6 LOS rating in their last 5 games) and has really good special teams (+2.0 points per game).
Iowa State has a 0.5 points edge in projected turnovers thanks to their ball-hawking secondary (5.7 passes defended per game) and overall the math only favors Kansas State by 5 points in this game. Kansas State is good at home (134-76 ATS at home since 1990) but Iowa State applies to a 106-41-2 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation.
Iowa State is a 1-Star Best Bet at +10 or more.
Rush
-
Run Plays
28.8
30.8
-
Run Yards
126.4
141.4
-
YPRP
4.4
4.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
19.2
18.5
-
Pass Att
29.9
33.3
-
Comp %
64.1%
55.5%
-
Pass Yards
233.3
212.6
-
Sacks
1.1
2.0
-
Sack Yards
6.6
11.8
-
Sack %
3.5%
5.7%
-
Pass Plays
31.0
35.3
-
Net Pass Yards
226.7
200.8
-
YPPP
7.3
5.7
Total
-
Total Plays
59.8
66.1
-
Total Yards
353.1
342.2
-
YPPL
5.9
5.2
TO
-
Int
0.7
1.4
-
Int %
2.4%
4.1%
-
Fumbles
0.1
0.3
-
Turnovers
0.8
1.6
Rush
-
Run Plays
37.6
28.5
-
Run Yards
217.2
143.3
-
YPRP
5.8
5.0
Pass
-
Pass Comp
20.0
20.5
-
Pass Att
31.6
35.8
-
Comp %
63.4%
57.1%
-
Pass Yards
239.6
232.3
-
Sacks
1.5
2.4
-
Sack Yards
9.1
16.7
-
Sack %
4.4%
6.2%
-
Pass Plays
33.0
38.2
-
Net Pass Yards
230.6
215.5
-
YPPP
7.0
5.6
Total
-
Total Plays
70.6
66.6
-
Total Yards
447.7
358.8
-
YPPL
6.3
5.4
TO
-
Int
0.8
1.1
-
Int %
2.6%
3.0%
-
Fumbles
0.2
0.7
-
Turnovers
1.0
1.8
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/02/23 Northern Iowa |
30-9 |
0.0
W
|
27/32 |
128/132 |
4.7/4.1 |
0/0 |
14/17 |
18/35 |
156/147 |
0/2 |
0/5 |
8.7/3.7 |
284/279 |
6.3/3.9 |
| 09/09/23 Iowa |
13-20 |
+4.0
L
|
31/26 |
87/117 |
2.8/4.5 |
0/0 |
23/12 |
44/22 |
203/120 |
1/1 |
0/1 |
4.6/5.2 |
290/237 |
3.9/4.8 |
| 09/16/23 @ Ohio |
7-10 |
-3.0
L
|
21/34 |
43/138 |
2.0/4.1 |
0/0 |
17/16 |
24/32 |
232/135 |
2/0 |
1/0 |
9.3/4.2 |
275/273 |
6.0/4.1 |
| 09/23/23 Oklahoma St. |
34-27 |
-3.5
W
|
32/23 |
78/148 |
2.4/6.4 |
0/0 |
27/23 |
38/48 |
348/266 |
0/2 |
0/1 |
9.2/5.4 |
426/414 |
6.1/5.8 |
| 09/30/23 @ Oklahoma |
20-50 |
+19.5
L
|
25/40 |
156/163 |
6.2/4.1 |
0/0 |
19/26 |
37/39 |
207/360 |
2/1 |
1/1 |
5.4/9.0 |
363/523 |
5.8/6.5 |
| 10/07/23 TCU |
27-14 |
+6.5
W
|
35/35 |
219/206 |
6.3/5.9 |
0/0 |
16/21 |
28/36 |
138/198 |
0/4 |
0/2 |
4.9/5.2 |
357/404 |
5.7/5.5 |
| 10/14/23 @ Cincinnati |
30-10 |
+5.0
W
|
36/31 |
131/128 |
3.6/4.1 |
0/0 |
15/16 |
25/29 |
233/101 |
0/2 |
2/2 |
8.6/3.3 |
364/229 |
5.8/3.7 |
| 10/28/23 @ Baylor |
30-18 |
-3.0
W
|
30/23 |
180/80 |
6.0/3.5 |
1/1 |
19/24 |
31/41 |
229/229 |
1/1 |
1/2 |
7.2/5.3 |
409/309 |
6.6/4.7 |
| 11/04/23 Kansas |
21-28 |
-3.0
L
|
26/33 |
97/87 |
3.7/2.6 |
0/0 |
21/14 |
27/23 |
236/287 |
1/0 |
3/0 |
7.9/12.5 |
333/374 |
5.9/6.7 |
| 11/11/23 @ BYU |
45-13 |
-7.5
W
|
36/34 |
243/208 |
6.8/6.1 |
0/1 |
16/11 |
25/28 |
208/110 |
0/2 |
1/4 |
8.0/3.4 |
451/318 |
7.3/4.8 |
| 11/18/23 Texas |
16-26 |
+7.5
L
|
18/28 |
28/148 |
1.6/5.3 |
0/1 |
24/23 |
32/33 |
304/256 |
1/0 |
3/4 |
8.7/6.9 |
332/404 |
6.3/6.2 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/02/23 Southeast Missouri State |
45-0 |
0.0
W
|
40/22 |
263/43 |
6.6/2.0 |
0/0 |
22/25 |
31/37 |
327/184 |
1/0 |
0/4 |
10.5/4.5 |
590/227 |
8.3/3.6 |
| 09/09/23 Troy |
42-13 |
-15.5
W
|
37/23 |
155/95 |
4.2/4.1 |
0/1 |
21/22 |
32/38 |
242/184 |
1/1 |
1/5 |
7.3/4.3 |
397/279 |
5.7/4.2 |
| 09/16/23 @ Missouri |
27-30 |
-5.0
L
|
31/24 |
152/95 |
4.9/4.0 |
0/0 |
25/23 |
39/35 |
257/339 |
1/0 |
3/3 |
6.1/8.9 |
409/434 |
5.6/7.0 |
| 09/23/23 UCF |
44-31 |
-6.5
W
|
39/29 |
288/173 |
7.4/6.0 |
0/1 |
27/14 |
42/25 |
248/234 |
1/1 |
1/4 |
5.8/8.1 |
536/407 |
6.5/7.0 |
| 10/06/23 @ Oklahoma St. |
21-29 |
-11.0
L
|
35/36 |
247/181 |
7.1/5.0 |
0/0 |
15/20 |
34/36 |
144/238 |
3/0 |
2/0 |
4.0/6.6 |
391/419 |
5.5/5.8 |
| 10/14/23 @ Texas Tech |
38-21 |
+1.5
W
|
43/28 |
282/160 |
6.6/5.7 |
0/0 |
14/30 |
18/49 |
155/290 |
0/3 |
1/2 |
8.2/5.7 |
437/450 |
7.0/5.7 |
| 10/21/23 TCU |
41-3 |
-6.0
W
|
51/20 |
356/125 |
7.0/6.3 |
0/0 |
15/23 |
26/43 |
231/175 |
0/1 |
1/2 |
8.6/3.9 |
587/300 |
7.5/4.6 |
| 10/28/23 Houston |
41-0 |
-17.5
W
|
44/25 |
191/111 |
4.3/4.4 |
1/1 |
21/16 |
24/33 |
206/103 |
0/1 |
2/1 |
7.9/3.0 |
397/214 |
5.7/3.6 |
| 11/04/23 @ Texas |
30-33 |
+3.5
W
|
25/36 |
65/240 |
2.6/6.7 |
1/1 |
26/19 |
43/37 |
309/248 |
1/2 |
3/0 |
6.7/6.7 |
374/488 |
5.3/6.7 |
| 11/11/23 Baylor |
59-25 |
-21.0
W
|
36/31 |
193/124 |
5.4/4.0 |
0/3 |
21/22 |
34/45 |
258/229 |
0/1 |
1/3 |
7.4/4.8 |
451/353 |
6.4/4.5 |
| 11/18/23 @ Kansas |
31-27 |
-8.0
L
|
33/39 |
197/229 |
6.0/5.9 |
0/1 |
13/11 |
24/16 |
159/147 |
1/2 |
1/2 |
6.4/8.2 |
356/376 |
6.1/6.6 |
Iowa St.
@ 
Kansas St.