Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Iowa State (-8)  28   BYU  14

BYU will be going with Jake Retzlaff at quarterback again this week with Kedon Slovis apparently still not ready to play after injuring his non-throwing arm a couple of weeks ago. Retzlaff averaged just 3.7 yards per pass play and were shutout against West Virginia before scoring a TD on their final possession against the Mountaineers’ backups. Retzlaff should be better in his second start and I only downgraded the BYU offense by about 1 point because he adds a running element that Slovis does not. The Cougars’ offense has been 0.7 yards per play worse than average with Slovis and would have been projected to average only 4.3 yppl against a very good Iowa State defense (1.0 yppl better than average) even with their starter. I project only 251 yards at 4.1 yppl with Retzlaff at quarterback – even after adjusting for the good weather.

BYU’s defense is below average too (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team) while ISU attack is 0.2 yppl better than average. I project the Cyclones at 376 total yards at 5.9 yppl yppl in this game.

BYU was shutout last week before garbage time and they’ll likely struggle to move the ball against a better defense this week. ISU should score enough points to win by double-digits but they don’t quite qualify as a Best Bet. Iowa State is a Strong Opinion at -8 -115 or better.