Game Analysis

Iowa State (+2)  26   Arizona State  25

The Big 12 was the nation’s most competitive conference this season and the Championship game is also an even battle between two good teams.

Arizona State was the surprise team of the conference, as the Sun Devils were picked to finish last in the conference. ASU has a good offense that is led by star RB Cam Skattebo, who ran for 1398 yards and 17 touchdowns (despite missing a game) and added 468 receiving yards at 11.4 yards per target, which is incredible for a running back. The Sun Devils’ attack rates at a modest 0.6 yards per play better than average in the 11 games with Skattebo but that unit is weakened by the absence of leading receiver Jordyn Tyson, so racked up 1101 yards on 114 targets (9.7 yards per target) while the next 4 wide receivers combined for just 72 targets at 7.8 YPT. That’s a difference of 0.63 yards per pass play, which equates to 1.6 points on the 26 pass plays projected for ASU.

Iowa State is hard to throw against, as the Cyclones allow just 52% completions and rate at 1.2 yards per pass play better than average. ISU is only 0.2 yards per rushing play better than average and they should see a heavy dose of Skattebo in this game.

Even without Tyson the Sun Devils have an overall edge from the line of scrimmage, as the Arizona State defense rates at 0.8 yards per play better than average while Iowa State’s offense has been just 0.3 yppl better than average.

The total yards project to be even because Iowa State should run a few more plays from scrimmage, and the Cyclones have an edge in special teams mostly due to place kicking, which is a 1.1 points per game difference between these teams. Overall, I get Iowa State by 0.5 points with 50.0 total points projected (adjusted for playing in the calm conditions of AT&T Stadium).