Game Analysis
Lean – Iowa (+2.5) 14 NEBRASKA 11
Field position is more important in low scoring games and Iowa has the nation’s best special teams units and is the reason why the Hawkeyes have outscored their opponents by an average of 6.1 points per game despite getting outgained from the line of scrimmage by 38 yards per game.
My math model accounts for special teams value and favors Iowa by 1.4 points despite predicting the Hawkeyes to get outgained by 78 yards. The Hawkeyes also apply to a very good 92-23-2 ATS situation that plays on good defensive teams on the road in games with low totals.
Rush
-
Run Plays
32.1
32.2
-
Run Yards
138.8
121.1
-
YPRP
4.3
3.8
Pass
-
Pass Comp
12.1
19.6
-
Pass Att
23.9
35.7
-
Comp %
50.6%
55.0%
-
Pass Yards
125.6
172.9
-
Sacks
2.1
1.8
-
Sack Yards
16.4
10.5
-
Sack %
8.0%
4.8%
-
Pass Plays
26.0
37.6
-
Net Pass Yards
109.3
162.5
-
YPPP
4.2
4.3
Total
-
Total Plays
58.1
69.7
-
Total Yards
248.1
283.6
-
YPPL
4.3
4.1
TO
-
Int
0.7
0.8
-
Int %
3.1%
2.3%
-
Fumbles
0.6
0.3
-
Turnovers
1.4
1.1
Rush
-
Run Plays
37.6
27.6
-
Run Yards
200.5
107.5
-
YPRP
5.3
3.9
Pass
-
Pass Comp
11.1
21.2
-
Pass Att
21.0
34.9
-
Comp %
52.8%
60.7%
-
Pass Yards
132.7
222.2
-
Sacks
2.6
2.7
-
Sack Yards
16.1
18.3
-
Sack %
10.8%
7.3%
-
Pass Plays
23.6
37.6
-
Net Pass Yards
116.6
203.9
-
YPPP
5.0
5.4
Total
-
Total Plays
61.2
65.3
-
Total Yards
317.1
311.5
-
YPPL
5.2
4.8
TO
-
Int
1.4
0.7
-
Int %
6.5%
2.1%
-
Fumbles
1.2
0.5
-
Turnovers
2.5
1.2
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/02/23 Utah St. |
24-14 |
-24.0
L
|
34/23 |
100/126 |
2.9/5.5 |
0/0 |
19/32 |
33/48 |
195/203 |
0/1 |
1/1 |
5.7/4.1 |
295/329 |
4.3/4.6 |
| 09/09/23 @ Iowa St. |
20-13 |
-4.0
W
|
26/31 |
117/87 |
4.5/2.8 |
0/0 |
12/23 |
22/44 |
120/203 |
1/1 |
1/0 |
5.2/4.6 |
237/290 |
4.8/3.9 |
| 09/16/23 Western Mich |
41-10 |
-28.5
W
|
39/34 |
283/138 |
7.3/4.1 |
0/1 |
11/7 |
22/18 |
78/107 |
2/0 |
4/2 |
3.0/5.4 |
361/245 |
5.6/4.5 |
| 09/23/23 @ Penn St. |
0-31 |
+14.0
L
|
14/57 |
45/187 |
3.2/3.3 |
4/0 |
6/26 |
16/40 |
34/181 |
0/0 |
3/0 |
1.8/4.5 |
79/368 |
2.4/3.8 |
| 09/30/23 Michigan St. |
26-16 |
-12.0
L
|
25/32 |
72/156 |
2.9/4.9 |
1/1 |
14/25 |
32/44 |
152/193 |
1/3 |
1/0 |
4.6/4.4 |
224/349 |
3.9/4.6 |
| 10/07/23 Purdue |
20-14 |
-2.5
W
|
32/34 |
212/143 |
6.6/4.2 |
0/0 |
6/25 |
21/40 |
100/204 |
1/2 |
1/6 |
4.5/4.4 |
312/347 |
5.8/4.3 |
| 10/14/23 @ Wisconsin |
15-6 |
+10.0
W
|
45/27 |
220/112 |
4.9/4.1 |
0/1 |
6/27 |
14/50 |
20/220 |
0/1 |
2/1 |
1.3/4.3 |
240/332 |
3.9/4.3 |
| 10/21/23 Minnesota |
10-12 |
-3.5
L
|
24/40 |
42/132 |
1.8/3.3 |
2/0 |
10/10 |
28/25 |
86/113 |
1/0 |
4/3 |
2.7/4.0 |
128/245 |
2.3/3.6 |
| 11/04/23 @ Northwestern |
10-7 |
-5.0
L
|
38/35 |
117/120 |
3.1/3.4 |
0/0 |
10/12 |
15/19 |
53/67 |
1/0 |
2/5 |
3.1/2.8 |
170/187 |
3.1/3.2 |
| 11/11/23 Rutgers |
22-0 |
-1.5
W
|
45/20 |
189/59 |
4.2/3.0 |
0/0 |
20/7 |
31/18 |
223/86 |
1/1 |
0/1 |
7.2/4.5 |
412/145 |
5.4/3.7 |
| 11/18/23 Illinois |
15-13 |
-3.0
L
|
31/21 |
130/72 |
4.2/3.4 |
0/0 |
19/22 |
29/47 |
141/210 |
0/0 |
4/1 |
4.3/4.4 |
271/282 |
4.2/4.1 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/31/23 @ Minnesota |
10-13 |
+7.5
W
|
34/21 |
207/70 |
6.1/3.3 |
1/0 |
11/24 |
19/44 |
88/184 |
3/1 |
3/3 |
4.0/3.9 |
295/254 |
5.3/3.7 |
| 09/09/23 @ Colorado |
14-36 |
+2.5
L
|
39/26 |
256/128 |
6.6/4.9 |
3/1 |
12/32 |
22/44 |
117/354 |
1/0 |
2/7 |
4.9/6.9 |
373/482 |
5.9/6.3 |
| 09/16/23 Northern Ill |
35-11 |
-11.0
W
|
43/19 |
218/46 |
5.1/2.4 |
1/0 |
14/15 |
24/36 |
151/76 |
0/1 |
1/3 |
6.0/1.9 |
369/122 |
5.4/2.1 |
| 09/23/23 Louisiana Tech |
28-14 |
-20.5
L
|
44/20 |
331/51 |
7.5/2.6 |
0/0 |
8/27 |
17/42 |
83/292 |
0/1 |
3/0 |
4.2/7.0 |
414/343 |
6.5/5.5 |
| 09/30/23 Michigan |
7-45 |
+18.0
L
|
17/51 |
66/249 |
3.9/4.9 |
0/0 |
14/17 |
25/23 |
175/214 |
1/0 |
4/0 |
6.0/9.3 |
241/463 |
5.2/6.3 |
| 10/06/23 @ Illinois |
20-7 |
+3.5
W
|
45/16 |
178/30 |
4.0/1.9 |
2/1 |
12/29 |
24/47 |
150/278 |
1/1 |
1/3 |
6.0/5.6 |
328/308 |
4.7/4.7 |
| 10/21/23 Northwestern |
17-9 |
-10.5
L
|
37/32 |
180/132 |
4.9/4.1 |
0/0 |
8/12 |
17/23 |
91/127 |
2/1 |
0/7 |
5.4/4.2 |
271/259 |
5.0/4.2 |
| 10/28/23 Purdue |
31-14 |
-2.5
W
|
44/28 |
189/112 |
4.3/4.0 |
4/1 |
6/17 |
11/33 |
92/88 |
0/2 |
4/1 |
6.1/2.6 |
281/200 |
4.8/3.2 |
| 11/04/23 @ Michigan St. |
17-20 |
-3.0
L
|
34/28 |
189/88 |
5.6/3.1 |
1/0 |
12/15 |
28/24 |
94/207 |
2/0 |
7/3 |
2.7/7.7 |
283/295 |
4.1/5.4 |
| 11/11/23 Maryland |
10-13 |
+2.0
L
|
39/25 |
186/112 |
4.8/4.5 |
1/2 |
10/27 |
21/40 |
83/272 |
4/1 |
1/1 |
3.8/6.6 |
269/384 |
4.4/5.8 |
| 11/18/23 @ Wisconsin |
17-24 |
+7.0
T
|
38/38 |
205/165 |
5.4/4.3 |
0/0 |
15/18 |
23/28 |
159/151 |
1/0 |
2/2 |
6.4/5.0 |
364/316 |
5.8/4.6 |
Iowa
@ 
Nebraska