Game Analysis

Lean – Iowa (-2.5)  17   Kentucky  12

The 31 points over/under is lowest total in a bowl game that I’ve ever seen but there is certainly justification for it. Iowa’s offense averaged only 4.4 yards per play this season and they are down to their #3 quarterback who’s never taken a collegiate snap, as starter Spencer Petras is injured, and backup Alex Padilla transferred. It’s hard to that Joey Labas will be much worse than those two but I’ll apply the median negative adjustment for a backup quarterback with no experience. Kentucky’s defense was 0.8 yppl better than average and they rate at 0.6 yppl better than average without star CB Carrington Valentine. I project just 245 yards at 4.3 yppl for Iowa in this game.

Kentucky’s offense is likely to be even worse, as the Wildcats will be going against the best defense in the nation without starting quarterback Will Levis, who’s expected to be a 1st-round NFL draft pick, NFL-bound RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., and his backup Kavosley Smoke. Backup quarterback Kaiya Sheron averaged just 3.8 yards per pass play in his start against South Carolina and #3 and #4 quarterbacks Destin Wade and Deuce Hogan may also get some snaps if Sheron struggles again – which is likely against an Iowa defense that allowed just 14.4 points per game and just 4.1 yppl this season to a schedule of teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average team. Kentucky’s offense was average for the season, but I rate that unit at 0.7 yppl worse than average heading into this game and Iowa’s defense at 1.5 yppl better than average (instead of 1.7 yppl) without SS Kaevon Merriweather. I project just 223 yards at 3.6 yppl for the Wildcats in this game.

The math favors Iowa by 5.4 points with a total of just 29.2 points. I’ll lean with Iowa at -3 or less.